近20年来,我国城镇化进程空前迅猛,加之全球气候变暖的影响,洪涝灾害风险特性与安全保障需求均在发生显著变化。由于城市面积急剧扩张,防洪排涝基础设施建设滞后,“城市看海”几成常态;农村青壮年大量离乡,堤防常年维护和汛期抢险力量削弱,中小河流与湖区圩堤汛期溃口时有发生;农村土地流转后集约化经营的大户人家,一旦遭灾,不仅成为灾民,而且可能成为“巨额”债民,现有民政救济和社会赈灾体制难以助其恢复生产、重建家园。本文基于系列资料的分析,结合典型案例的调研,论述了我国洪涝风险的演变特征,从把握发展阶段需求、谋求人与自然和谐、加强洪水风险管理与应急响应的基础研究与能力建设等方面探讨了综合治水方略的调整方向。
In the past 20 years,the process of urbanization in China has been unprecedentedly swift and violent. With the influence of global warming,the characteristics of flood disaster risk and the demand for security have been changed remarkably. Due to rapid expansion of the city area,the lag of flood control and drainage infrastructure construction,“city to see the sea” into a few normal;a large number of young rural villages,perennial dike maintenance and flood rescue forces weakened,medium and small rivers and lakes flood levee breach has occurred;the rural land circulation after intensive management of a large family,once the disaster,not only is the victims,and may become the huge public debt,the existing civil relief and social relief system to help restore production and rebuild their homes. Based on the analysis of the data of this report,combined with the research of typical cases,discusses the evolution characteristics of flood risk in China,from the stage of development,grasp the demand for harmony between human and nature,strengthen flood risk management and emergency response basic research and capacity building aspects of the direction of adjustment of integrated water management strategy.