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灾害风险预警与中国的实践

文章摘要

2015年3月,联合国主办的第三次世界减灾大会通过《仙台减灾框架(2015~2030)》,把以早期预警系统为核心的减轻灾害风险列入未来15年全球减灾4个优先行动事项。为落实联合国《仙台减灾框架(2015~2030)》,世界气象组织制定了《WMO减轻灾害风险路线图》,旨在利用世界气象组织现有机构开展活动和项目,实现以早期预警系统为核心的减轻灾害风险服务。早期预警系统作为减轻灾害风险的有效手段,经历了由传统天气预报向基于影响和风险的预警转变的历程。而作为全球气象灾害损失最严重的国家之一,中国已经建立起集气象灾害风险评估、早期预警、信息发布、应急响应、恢复重建和风险应对于一体的气象灾害风险预警业务体系,并开始由传统天气气候要素预报向灾害风险预警转变。

Abstract

In 2014,more than 110 billion US MYM was lost due to natural catastrophes globally. In the March of 2015,3rd World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction held in Sendai,Japan released “Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030”. One of the four priority activities in the Framework call for members of Unite Nation to invest in Disaster risk reduction for building resilience society. In order to response of the Sendai Framework,World Meteorological Organization(WMO)has developed a roadmap for disaster risk reduction,which will be used to carry out activities and projects utilizing existing WMO mechanisms,to guide the members of WMO to enhance the early warnings service,and to realize a Unite Nation DRR vision. Early warning system as an effective methods to reduce disaster risk frequently uses in meteorological and hydrological departments at national and regional levels. Early warning services has experienced a process from the traditional weather forecast to risk warning based on the impacts starting from earlier 1960s. As one of the countries with serious losses caused by meteorological disasters in the world,China has preliminary established impact and risk based disaster early warning services since 2011.A good practice for disaster risk reduction in China Meteorological Administration(CMA)is demonstrated by using impact and risk based early warning services including the meteorological disaster risk assessment,information release,emergency response,reconstruction.

作者简介
矫梅燕:矫梅燕,中国气象局副局长,研究员,研究领域为暴雨和中小尺度天气应用研究。
翟建青:翟建青,中国气象局国家气候中心副研究员,博士,研究领域为气候变化、旱涝灾害及水资源。
张迪:张迪,中国气象局应急减灾与公共服务司。
姜彤:姜彤,中国气象局国家气候中心首席研究员,博士,研究领域为气候变化、风险评估和灾害综合管理。