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热词推荐: 基础设施能源

2030年可再生能源装机容量增至三倍面临的挑战和路径探索

文章摘要

可再生能源电力已成为推动全球能源转型的主力。2023年下半年以来,全球范围内对2030年可再生能源装机容量增至三倍基本达成共识,但在不到十年的时间内持续保持可再生能源的高规模增长,各国和地区均面临程度不同的挑战,美欧等力图构建本土产业链以重塑可再生能源制造业格局也增加了复杂性。本文分析了可再生能源发展特点和基础,总结了国际可再生能源署等机构提出的三倍可再生能源装机路径,分析其与我国实现非化石能源占比目标的匹配度、我国可能的作用和贡献,剖析全球和我国面临的挑战,提出:2030年全球实现三倍可再生能源装机的核心是风光发展,挑战重点在能源和电力基础设施,贸易壁垒是需要克服的障碍。无论是推动实现三倍可再生能源装机,还是国内能源绿色低碳转型和支撑健康产业发展,中国风光等可再生能源市场都需要持续保持高规模,电源发展和建设模式要多元化,应合理配置灵活性资源,提升电网消纳和调控能力;在政策机制上应保障国内可再生能源项目规模,同时降低贸易壁垒影响,推进我国制造业为全球三倍可再生能源装机和能源转型作出贡献。

Abstract

Renewable power has become the main force to promote global energy transformation towards low-carbon. Since the second half of 2023,tripling renewable power by 2030 has been proposed on many international events. However,it is great challenge for countries and regions,with different degrees,to keep high growth of renewable power from present to 2030. USA and Europe attempt to support local industrial chains to re-build global renewable production landscape,increasing the complexity of tripling renewable power. This paper explains the status of global renewable power development,summarizes the road proposed by some international organizations including IRENA to realize tripling renewable power by 2030,analyzes its matching degree with China’s goal of achieving the proportion of non-fossil energy,China’s possible role and contribution. The key point of tripling renewable power by 2030 is wind and solar power development,with challenges focusing on energy and power infrastructure and industry trade barriers to be overcome. Whether from promoting the realization of tripling renewable power by 2030,or domestic energy green low-carbon transformation,or supporting development of domestic healthy industries,China wind and solar power and other renewable energy markets need to continue to maintain a high scale. Power sources should be diversified,flexible resources should be reasonably allocated,and power grid should be improved. The policy mechanism should guarantee the market scale and investment of domestic renewable power projects,while reducing and solving the impact of international trade barriers,and promoting China’s manufacturing industry to contribute to the global tripling renewable power by 2030 as well as energy transformation.

作者简介
时璟丽:时璟丽,国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所研究员,研究领域为能源经济。