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2023~2024年人工智能在气候与气候变化领域的应用

文章摘要

2023年以来,人工智能(AI)大模型发展呈火爆状态。GraphCast、Pangu-Weather、“伏羲”、“风乌”等全球AI气象大模型推动天气和气候预测进入智能化新阶段。当前,气候变化是全人类面临的共同挑战,人工智能为助力解决全球气候变化问题带来了极大机遇。本文详细梳理了人工智能在气候领域的应用现状,对目前全球主流的AI气象大模型进行了归纳总结,进而介绍次季节-季节气候预测模型发展。特别是2024年6月中国气象局发布的“风顺”大模型,对于全球气候异常预测技巧显著优于传统数值预报模式预测技巧。此外,人工智能在气候变化领域的应用及发展潜力巨大,涵盖了资料同化与气候模式改进,人工智能气候预测与预估,智能气候治理、减缓和适应,能源管理优化、碳排放监测,极端灾害预警、防灾减灾决策等多方面。在全球气候变化与智能时代大背景下,我们应当提前布局“1+N”AI新技术研发,探索AI减缓与适应气候变化新型智能治理模式,为我国新一代AI发展与推动全球气候治理提供战略支撑。

Abstract

The development of large-scale artificial intelligence(AI)models has been in full swing since 2023. GraphCast,Pangu-Weather,“Fuxi”,“Fengwu” and other major global AI weather models are ushering in a new era of intelligent weather and climate forecasting. Responding to climate change is now a common challenge facing humanity,and artificial intelligence offers great opportunities to solve the global climate change issues. This paper reviews the current state of AI applications in the field of climate and summarizes the current mainstream AI weather models worldwide. Then we introduce the development of sub-seasonal-seasonal climate models,in particular the “Fengshun” big model released by the China Meteorological Administration in June 2024,which far outperforms traditional numerical models in predicting global climate anomalies. Moreover,the application and development potential of AI in the field of climate change is generally substantial,covering data assimilation and climate model improvement,climate prediction and forecasting,smart climate governance,mitigation and adaptation,energy management optimization,carbon emission monitoring,early warning of extreme disasters,disaster prevention and mitigation decision making,etc. In the context of global climate change and the intelligent era,we should establish the “1+N” AI new technology research and development in advance,and explore new intelligent governance mode of AI climate change mitigation and adaptation,so as to strategically support China’s new-generation AI development and promote global climate governance.

作者简介
沈鹏珂:沈鹏珂,国家气候中心气候变化影响适应室副研究员,研究领域为城市气候变化影响与适应。
陆波:陆波,国家气候中心气候变化影响适应室主任,研究员,研究领域为短期气候预测和气候变化。