近几十年来,中国沙尘天气活动频率降低、强度也呈现减弱的态势。然而近年来平均沙尘天气日数增多引发关注。大气环流和沙源地植被状况的变化是引起沙尘天气发生变化的两个主要因素。全球气候变暖背景下欧亚中高纬度冷空气活动减弱,造成沙尘天气的大气环流输送动力减弱,加之近几十年来中国防沙治沙工作取得显著进展,中国北方沙尘天气持续减少。然而随着气候变暖进一步加剧,蒙古国南部的干旱程度加重,恶化的地表状况不仅影响了蒙古国,还通过沙尘跨国界输送造成中国北方沙尘天气增多。未来在全球气候变暖背景下,中国北方沙尘天气将以偏少为主要特征,但中亚、西亚和东亚北部等亚洲干旱、半干旱地区,沙尘浓度将增加。为应对气候变化所导致的沙尘暴加剧风险,中国仍需巩固防沙治沙成果,筑牢北方生态安全屏障,同时继续加强国际防沙治沙合作,并完善沙源地监测站网体系建设,提高沙尘天气科学分析预报预警能力。
The frequency of sand-dust weather(SDW)decreased and the intensity weakened in northern China during 1961-2020,while the SDW frequency(SDWF)of spring sharply increased in 2021 and 2023,which prompted widespread concern. As we know,the changes of spring general atmospheric circulation and surface condition of sand-dust source region are the main factors impacting the variation of SDW. Due to the weakening of mid-high latitude of Eurasia continent under global warming,there has been a notable reduction in the transportation. Additionally,owing to China’s efforts in preventing and controlling desertification during recent decades,sand-dust is less easily blown into the sky from sand-dust source region. Both factors have contributed to the notable decrease of SDWF in northern China. While,at the same time,the significantly warmer conditions over mid Asia have exacerbated the drought in southern Mongolia. This has deteriorated surface conditions and facilitated the lifting of sand-dust into the sky,which was then carried to northern China and other part of East Asia through atmospheric circulation. The occurrence of sand-dust weather in northern China is projected to decrease in the future as a result of global warming. However,it is anticipated that the dust concentration will increase in the arid and semi-arid areas of Central Asia,West Asia,and northern East Asia. In order to effectively cope with the risk of sandstorms exacerbated by climate change,China still needs to consolidate the achievements of desertification prevention and control,build a stronger ecological security barrier in the north. Moreover,it is imperative to continue to strengthen international cooperation in desertification prevention and control. Additionally,there is a need to improve the construction of the monitoring station network in the sand-source regions,as well as strengthen scientific research efforts to enhance the prediction capabilities and early warning systems for sand-dust events.