能源系统脱碳是中国实现碳中和的关键。然而,社会各界对于“我国风能和太阳能资源禀赋能否支撑碳中和目标的实现”还存有相当大的疑虑。另外,风能、太阳能具有间歇性和波动性,构建以新能源为主体的新型电力系统极具挑战。为了回答上述科学问题,本文基于高时空分辨率风能、太阳能资源数据库,利用地理信息系统空间分析技术,系统评估了中国风能和太阳能资源的技术可开发量,同时构建风光电力供需与空间优化模型,探讨了2050年中国风光资源开发利用对碳中和的潜在贡献。结果表明,在当前技术水平下,中国风能和太阳能资源的技术可开发量为565.5亿千瓦,约为碳中和情景下所需风光装机容量的9倍;到2050年,如果风电装机容量25亿千瓦、太阳能发电装机容量26.7亿千瓦,按照全国小时级的电力电量互动平衡,仅靠“风光”就可以满足全国约67%的电量需求,同时弃电率小于7%。
Decarburization of energy system is the key to realize carbon neutrality in China. However,people from all walks of life are concerned about “can China’s natural endowment of wind and solar energy resources support the realization of carbon neutrality?”. There are still considerable doubts. In addition,because wind energy and solar energy are intermittent and fluctuating,it is extremely challenging to build a new power system with new energy as the main body. In order to answer the above scientific questions,this paper systematically evaluates the technical exploitable capacity of wind power and photovoltaic in China based on the data of wind and solar resources with high temporal and spatial resolution,and constructs a model of supply and demand and spatial optimization of scenery power,revealing the optimal pattern of wind and solar development in China in 2050. The results show that at the current technical level,the technical development capacity of wind power and photovoltaic in China is 56.55 billion kilowatts,which is about 9 times of the installed capacity of wind and solar energy required in the carbon neutral scenario. By 2050,if the installed capacity of wind power is 2.5 billion kilowatts and the installed capacity of photovoltaic is 2.67 billion kilowatts,according to the interactive balance of hourly power and electricity,the new energy alone can provide about 67% of the country’s electricity demand,and the power abandonment rate is less than 7%.
Keywords: | Wind PowerSolar PowerCarbon Neutrality |