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1961~2022年中国农业气候资源变化分析

文章摘要

农业气候资源在一定程度上决定了一个地区的农业生产潜力,分析中国农业气候资源的变化规律,可以为中国农业区划和区域农业发展战略方案的制定以及农业应对气候变化等提供科学依据。本文分析了中国北方地区喜凉作物和全国喜温作物活动的初日、终日、生长季长度及生长季内农业气候资源的变化规律。结果表明,1961~2022年,我国北方地区喜凉作物和全国喜温作物活动初日均有明显提前趋势,终日有一定的延后趋势,生长季长度有明显的增加趋势;北方地区喜凉作物和全国喜温作物生长季活动积温总体均呈明显的增加趋势,日照时数呈明显的减少趋势,但降水量变化趋势不明显,其中北方地区喜凉作物生长季降水量有微弱的增加趋势,而全国喜温作物生长季降水量有微弱的减少趋势。与常年相比,2022年,我国北方地区喜凉作物平均活动初日和终日均有所提前,生长季长度变化不大,生长季平均活动积温偏高,降水量偏多,但日照时数偏少;全国喜温作物平均活动初日提前,终日推迟,生长季长度增加,生长季平均活动积温偏高,日照时数偏多,但降水量偏少。

Abstract

Agricultural climate resources determine the agricultural production potential of a region in a certain degree. Analyzing the changes of agricultural climate resources in Chinacan provide scientific basis for the formulation of China’s agricultural zoning and regional agricultural development strategies,as well as for agriculture’s response to climate change. The changes of the first day,final day of crop activity,the growth season length,and agricultural climate resource during the growth season for cool loving crops in northern China and warm loving crops in nationwide are analyzed in the paper. The results show that from 1961 to 2022,there was a significant early trend of the first day,a delayed trend in a certain degree of the final day of crop activity,and significant increase trend for the length of the growing season for cool loving crops in northern China and warm loving crops nationwide. The overall accumulated temperature during the growth season of cool loving crops in the northern region and nationwide warm loving crops shows a significant increase trend,with a significant decrease in sunshine hours. However,the trend of precipitation change is not obvious. Among them,the precipitation during the growth season of cool loving crops in the northern region shows a weak increase trend,while the precipitation during the growth season of warm loving crops in the whole country shows a weak decrease trend. Compared with the average value from 1991 to 2020,in 2022,the regional average of the starting and ending dates for cool loving crops activity in northern China were both advanced,the length of the growing season did not change significantly. The average accumulated temperature and precipitation during the growing season were higher,but the sunshine hours were lower. The average of the starting date for warm loving crops activity in China was advanced,the ending date was postponed,the length of the growing season increased. The average accumulated temperature during the growing season was higher,but the precipitation and sunshine hours were lower.

作者简介
廖要明:廖要明,博士,国家气候中心气候变化影响适应室正高级工程师,研究方向为气候与气候变化对中国农业的影响适应。
陆波:陆波,博士,国家气候中心气候变化影响适应室主任,研究员,研究方向为气候变化的行业影响和风险评估。