实现“碳达峰、碳中和”目标，能源是主战场，电力是主力军，电力行业低碳转型路径深刻影响着全社会碳达峰、碳中和进程。因此，本文首先研究分析了电力行业实现“双碳”目标所面临的挑战与机遇；其次，在构建电力深度低碳、零碳和负碳三类情景的基础上，量化研究了一次能源、终端能源的消费结构及各品类能源的未来发展定位和趋势。根据研究结果本文提出了包含碳达峰、深度低碳和碳中和三个阶段的电力系统低碳转型路径，分析了不同情景下电力供应成本变化趋势。在此基础上，从煤电发展定位、新能源开发利用、供需多元化发展、新能源产业链、电力供应成本疏导等方面，提出了适应电力绿色低碳转型的实施要点和相关措施建议。
To achieve the goal of “carbon peak and carbon neutrality”，energy system is the main battlefield and power system is the main force. The green and low-carbon transition path of the power industry has a profound impact on the process of carbon peak and carbon neutrality of the whole society. Firstly，this paper analyzes the challenges and opportunities faced by the power industry to achieve the double-carbon goal；Secondly，on the basis of constructing three scenarios of deep low-carbon，zero carbon and negative carbon in power system，relying on the self-developed “double carbon” electric power planning software package GESP-V，the consumption structure of primary energy and terminal energy，the future development orientation and trend of various types of energy are quantitatively studied，and the low-carbon transition path of power system including three stages of carbon peak，deep low-carbon and carbon neutral is proposed，the change trend of power supply cost under different scenarios is analyzed. On this basis，from the aspects of coal power development positioning，new energy development and utilization，diversified development of supply and demand，new energy industry chain，and power supply cost dredging，the implementation points and relevant suggestions to adapt to the green and low-carbon transition of power system are proposed.
