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欧盟碳边境调节机制的要点及其影响

文章摘要

自2019年欧盟委员会发布的《欧洲绿色协议》提出要通过碳边境调节机制(CBAM)来实现气候目标之后,欧盟不断推进碳边境调节机制的立法进程。目前,欧盟CBAM的立法已经处于欧盟理事会、欧盟委员会和欧洲议会三方会谈阶段即最后阶段。本文对2022年6月通过的欧盟碳边境调节机制最新文本进行了研究,提炼总结了CBAM方案执行范围、覆盖领域、核算方式、执行方式等要点,并基于中国2018年非竞争型投入产出表,采用投入产出模型测算了欧盟碳边境调节机制对中国的可能影响。结果显示中国对欧盟出口的CBAM六个行业的“直接+间接72114097”碳排放为1538.59万吨,占中国对欧盟出口碳排放的19.09%,若以70欧元/吨碳即80美元/吨碳的碳价征税,中国需支付碳关税12.31亿美元,其中化学品支付最多,为4.02亿美元,水泥最少,不足0.01亿美元;如果CBAM征税范围拓展到“直接+间接+上游产品”碳排放,中国对欧盟出口的CBAM六个行业的隐含碳为4618.51万吨,在同样的碳价水平下,中国则需支付36.95亿美元,是未扩展之前的3倍多。面对欧盟碳边境调节机制,中国可以从政治和技术两方面综合进行应对。

Abstract

Since the European Green Deal issued by the European Commission in 2019 proposed the “carbon border adjustment mechanism”(CBAM) to achieve climate goals,the EU has continuously promoted the legislative process of the CBAM. At present,the legislation of the EU’s CBAM is in the final stage of the tripartite talks between the Council of the European Union,the European Commission,and the European Parliament. This paper studies the latest text of the EU’s CBAM adopted in June 2022,extracts and summarizes the implementation scope,coverage,accounting methods,and other key points of the CBAM,and uses input-output models to measure the possible impact of the EU’s CBAM on China based on China’s 2018 non-competitive input-output table. The results show that the direct and indirect carbon emissions of the six industries of CBAM exported from China to the EU are 15.38593 million tons,accounting for 19.091% of the carbon emissions exported from China to the EU. If the carbon price of 70/ton,that is,US$80/ton,China needs to pay US$1.2309 billion,of which chemicals pay the most,US$401.6 million,and cement pays the least,US$4 million. If the scope of CBAM taxation is expanded to direct,indirect,and upstream product carbon emissions,the embodied carbon of the six industries of CBAM exported by China to the EU is 46.18508 million tons. Under the same carbon price as the former,China needs to pay US$3694.8 million,more than three times that before the expansion. In order to effectively deal with the EU’s CBAM,China can comprehensively deal with it from the political,and technical aspects.

作者简介
康文梅:康文梅,中国社会科学院大学在读博士生,研究领域为可持续发展、环境经济学等。
王谋:王谋,通讯作者,博士,中国社会科学院生态文明研究所研究员、中国社会科学院可持续发展研究中心秘书长,研究领域为全球气候治理、SDG本地化及实施进展评估等。