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对气候变化影响、适应和脆弱性的新认识——IPCC第六次评估报告第二工...

文章摘要

IPCC第六次评估报告(AR6)第二工作组(WG Ⅱ)报告系统性地描述了研究人员观测和预估的气候变化影响和风险、气候变化适应措施,以及对气候恢复力发展等内容的最新科学认识。报告指出,气候变化已对自然和人类系统造成了广泛而普遍的不利影响,且更多证据显示与极端事件相关的影响可归因为人为排放等人类活动;适应措施的有效性因系统而异,且随着气候变暖水平的提升而降低。AR6指出气候恢复力发展(CRD)需要减缓和适应措施并举,并强调CRD要支持公平的可持续发展。WG Ⅱ报告指出,相对第五次评估报告(AR5),AR6更加重视气候变化的解决方案,且在多个方面取得了新进展,例如对气候变化风险框架做了进一步扩展、全面评估了最新的气候变化适应措施、详细阐述了CRD的实现路径等。AR6的评估结果对于加深气候变化影响和适应方面的科学认识,以及及时制定系统性的对策具有重要意义。

Abstract

The Working Group Ⅱ (WGⅡ) report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment (AR6) report systematically describes the latest scientific understanding of observed and projected climate change impacts and risks,climate change adaptation options,and climate resilience development. The report shows that climate change is already causing widespread adverse effects on natural and human systems,and there is more evidence that the impacts associated with extreme events can be attributed to human activities such as anthropogenic emissions. The effectiveness of adaptation options varies between different systems,and will decrease with climate warming. Besides,the report defines the Climate Resilient Development (CRD) as a process of implementing greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation options to support sustained development for all and points out that the CRD-relevant actions are quite urgent. Compared with the Fifth Assessment (AR5) report,the AR6 report puts more emphasis on solutions to climate change and makes new progresses on several aspects. For example,the AR6 report further extends the climate change risk framework,comprehensively assesses the latest climate change adaptation options,and elaborates the CRD pathway. The assessment results are important for deepening the understanding of the impacts and adaptation of climate change and formulating timely and systematic strategies.

作者简介
韩振宇:韩振宇,国家气候中心气候变化影响适应室副主任、正高级工程师,研究领域为区域气候变化及模拟。
王蕾:王蕾,国家气候中心工程师,研究领域为气候变化影响适应。
秦云:秦云,国家气候中心工程师,研究领域为气候变化影响适应。
张百超:张百超,国家气候中心工程师,研究领域为气候变化影响适应。
石英:石英,国家气候中心研究员,研究领域为区域气候变化及模拟。
陆波:陆波,国家气候中心气候变化影响适应室主任、研究员,研究领域为短期气候预测和气候变化。