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热词推荐: 能源基础设施

气候变化对森林防火的影响及对策研究

文章摘要

近年来,随着全球气温升高,极端天气气候事件多发,特别是高温、干旱天气的趋多趋强,导致森林火灾同样频发。研究分析显示,受气候变化的影响,林中可燃物累积增多,火灾天气季节长度有延长趋势,雷击火和野火发生频率也有增加趋势。中国主要林区暖干化趋势明显,森林火险潜势近几年有明显增加,但近10年火灾次数及过火总面积均为减少趋势,这与中国森林防火的管理以及森林保护和生态发展理念的贯彻执行密切相关。模式预估未来全球及中国气候增暖趋势将继续,干雷暴频率增加,林火预警天数增加,火灾风险加大,森林防火形势将更加严峻。因此建议,加强气候变化对森林火灾影响的研究,加强森林火灾的监测预测预警,加强森林防火的科普宣传。

Abstract

In recent years,with the rising of global temperature,extreme weather events occur frequently,especial more and strong hot and dry weather,which leading forest fire occurs frequently. According to the research and analysis,under the influence of climate warming,the accumulation of combustible substances in forest increases,the length of fire weather season tends to lengthen,and the frequency of lightning and wildfire increases. The main forest areas in China have shown an obvious trend of warming and drying. And the potential of forest fire risk has increased significantly in recent years,but the number of fires and the total burned area in the past 10 years have all shown a decreasing trend,which is closely related to the management of forest fire prevention in China and the implementation of the concept of forest protection and ecological development. The model predicts that the Global warming trend will continue. The frequency of dry thunderstorms will increase,including the warning days of forest fires and the fire risk. The forest fire prevention will be more severe. We must strengthen the research on the impact of climate change on forest fires,strengthen the monitoring,prediction and early warning of forest fires,and strengthen the popularization of forest fire prevention.

作者简介
艾婉秀:艾婉秀,国家气候中心正研高工,研究领域为气候服务。
吴英:吴英,中国气象局公共气象服务中心高工,研究领域为森林火险预报。
王长科:王长科,国家气候中心高工,研究领域为气候变化与健康。
梁莉:梁莉,中国气象局公共气象服务中心高工,研究领域为森林火险预报。