为协助缔约方完成其国家自主贡献（NDC）下的减排目标并促进缔约方加强减排力度，《巴黎协定》（以下简称《协定》）第6条设立了合作方法和可持续发展机制两种市场机制。受NDC下减排目标多样性和未来减排努力不确定性等因素的影响，《协定》下市场机制在设计和实施中面临着巨大的风险和挑战。本文分析和识别了《协定》市场机制设计中可能导致较大风险的相关关键要素；从确保稳健核算、完善减排活动的额外性评估和促进缔约方减排力度提高三个方面入手，深入分析了风险的来源以及可能的影响。为了降低碳市场设计和运行中的风险给全球减排行动可能带来的负面影响，本文提出了建立稳健的核算体系，在减排活动的额外性评估中合理考虑NDC下的承诺，通过设立市场参与资质要求等方式，确保市场机制促进缔约方提高减排力度等有针对性的建议。
In order to assist Parties in achieving their mitigation targets under nationally determined contribution （NDC） and incentivize them to increase mitigation ambitions，Article 6 of the Paris Agreement establishes two market-based mechanisms，i.e. cooperative approaches and sustainable development mechanism. Influenced by the diversity of NDC mitigation targets and the uncertainty of future mitigation efforts，global carbon market mechanisms are facing enormous risks and challenges in their design and implementation. In this paper，key elements that may lead to great risks in the design of market mechanism are identified and analyzed. Then the sources and potential impact of risks are deeply analyzed from the perspectives of ensuring robust accounting，improving additionality assessment of emission reduction activities and promoting Parties’ mitigation action. To reduce the negative impact of these risks on global climate action，the paper proposes several suggestions，including establishing a robust accounting system，taking appropriate consideration of NDC commitment in additional assessment，as well as ensuring the promoting role of market mechanism in increasing Parties’ mitigation ambition by different ways，such as establishing participation requirements，etc.
