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云南气候带变化对高原特色农业的影响及适应对策

文章摘要

近50年来,在气候变暖背景下,云南气候带总体呈现北热带、南亚热带和中亚热带面积扩大,北亚热带、温带和高原气候区面积减小的变化趋势,并且偏暖气候带的分布变化呈现出向高海拔地区的扩展比北移的趋势更加明显的特征。伴随着气候带的变化以及气候变化的影响,云南农业产量波动加大,农业气象灾害、农作物病虫害多发、并发和重发,云南高原特色农业生产面临的气候风险加剧。云南高原特色农业发展为适应气候变化已在制度体系、能力建设上开展了创新实践。为了更好地适应气候变化,本文进一步建议:开展精细化农业气候资源区划和农业气候风险区划,科学评估气候承载力,优化、调整云南高原特色农业产业布局、种植结构,充分发挥云南农业气候资源的生产潜力;大力推进云南高原特色农业生产适应气候变化能力建设,强化农业气象灾害风险管理;加快农业适应气候变化科技创新及推广。

Abstract

In the context of global warming,the climatic zones in Yunnan Province generally show an expanding/shrinking trend in the extent of the tropical and sub-tropical/temperate zones during the past 50 years. Moreover,the expansion toward high altitudes is more obvious than the northward shift for the warmer zones. Accompanied with changes in climatic zones and impacts of climate change,the instability of agricultural yields has increased,and the agricultural meteorological disasters and crop diseases and pests have become more frequent and severe,consequently resulting in an increased climate risk encountered by the Plateau Characteristic Agriculture in Yunnan Province. To adapt to climate change,some innovation practices have been conducted on the institution system and capacity building for the development of Yunnan Characteristic Agriculture. In order for better adaption,three suggestions are further proposed:(1)To carry out refined zoning on agroclimatic resources and climate risks,scientifically assess climate carrying capacity,and optimize and adjust industrial distribution and plant structure of Yunnan Characteristic Agriculture to make full use of the productive potential of agroclimatic resources.(2)To vigorously promote capacity building in the adaptation of Yunnan Characteristic Agriculture to climate change and strengthen the agricultural meteorological disaster risk management.(3)To speed up science and technology innovation and promotion in agricultural adaptation to climate change.

作者简介
程建刚:程建刚,云南省气象局局长,高级工程师,研究领域为气候变化及防灾减灾战略研究。
黄玮:黄玮,云南省气候中心副主任,高级工程师,研究领域为气候变化及气候预测。
余凌翔:余凌翔,云南省气候中心,高级工程师,研究领域为农业气象及卫星遥感应用。
李蒙:李蒙,云南省气候中心,高级工程师,研究领域为气候监测及气候变化影响评估。
朱勇:朱勇,云南省气候中心主任,正研级高级工程师,研究领域为农业气象及气候变化影响评估。
周波涛:周波涛,博士,云南省气象局局长助理,国家气候中心气候变化室主任、研究员,研究领域为气候变化、东亚气候变异及机理研究。