本文选取五个建筑气候区代表城市,分析探讨了气候变化对办公建筑供热制冷能耗、建筑节能设计气象参数的影响,预估了未来中等排放情景下50~100年的供热制冷能耗。结果表明:各气候区建筑供热能耗均受温度影响,制冷能耗在哈尔滨受温度影响,在天津、上海和广州受温度和湿度的共同影响,夏季空调系统应充分考虑除湿功能;在气候变暖的背景下,建筑节能气象参数发生了明显变化,不同气候区的变化幅度明显不同,且冬季影响大于夏季,考虑气候变暖北方地区供热有3%~5%的节能量,夏季制冷设计负荷将升高0.8%~2.2%,在建筑供热制冷系统设计中应充分考虑气象参数变化;未来50~100年各气候区供热能耗呈降低趋势,而制冷能耗则会升高,在新建建筑空调系统容量设计中应充分考虑未来气候条件,做好前瞻性布局。
This study investigated the impacts of climate change on heating and cooling energy consumption,and outdoor meteorological parameters for building energy-saving design in different cities representing major climatic zones in China. In addition,the building energy demand for heating and cooling in the future 50-100 years for the medium-emission scenario were predicted. The results showed that heating energy consumption is dominantly related to the average temperature. By contrast,there are apparent differences in the response of cooling energy consumption to climate change. The dominant factor affecting cooling energy consumption is average temperature in Harbin,but the cooling consumption is affected by the combination of temperature and humidity in Tianjin,Shanghai and Guangzhou. Therefore air-conditioning systems should be designed not only for decreasing temperature but also for dehumidification. Under the conditions of climate warming,outdoor meteorological parameters for building energy-saving design showed apparent changes and the changing rates are dependent on different climates. The climate change effect on meteorological parameters is larger in winter than in summer. Heating energy consumption may be saved up to 3%-5% if the climate change was fully considered. The design load for cooling in summer may increase 0.8%-2.2% due to the past climate warming. The changes of meteorological parameters should be fully considered when the heating or air-conditioning systems are designed. The heating energy consumption will decrease in the future 50-100 years but with the increase of cooling energy consumption. The future climate conditions should be full taken into account in the design of capacity of heating and air-conditioning systems to take the forward-looking strategy.