新型基础设施建设是我国在新形势下推动经济高质量发展的主要举措之一,现阶段投资需求潜力巨大,在推动技术减排的同时也拉动了能源消费的增长。本研究对新型基础设施建设的投资规模、技术创新视角下的减排效应和需求驱动视角下的增耗效应及对重点行业碳排放达峰的影响进行了初步分析。预计“十四五”期间新型基础设施建设将拉动9.96万亿~16.37万亿元规模的投资,从能效提升、产业链结构优化、替代原有生产消费方式三方面带来显著的减排效应,而由于建设过程中的钢铁水泥使用、运营过程中的电力消耗和刺激消费新需求也将产生增耗效应。从短期来看,虽然“十四五”时期规模建设投产加速,但能源结构调整幅度并不能快速提升,增耗效应可能占据主导地位。根据我们的初步分析,综合考虑增耗和减排的直接及间接效应,“十四五”时期新型基础设施建设每年平均将增加二氧化碳排放约7300万吨。长期来看,新型基础设施对行业智能化升级改造、绿色化要素协同的减排效应将得到充分发挥。通过强化绿色导向,合理引导资本流向,出台扶持政策,实施绿色激励计划可帮助实现高质量绿色低碳发展。
The construction of new infrastructure is one of the main measures to promote high-quality economic development in China under the new situation. At the present stage,the investment demand has great potential,which promotes technological progress,while driving the growth of energy consumption. This study makes a brief predictive analysis of the investment scale of new infrastructure construction,the emission reduction effect from the perspective of technological innovation and the effect of increasing consumption under the demand-driven perspective,and their impact on the carbon emissions peaking of key industries. According to preliminary estimates,new infrastructure construction will drive 9.96-16.37¥ trillion of investment,which will bring significant emission reduction effects by energy efficiency improvement,industrial structure optimization and replacement of the original mode of production and consumption,while the use of steel and cement in the construction process,power consumption in the operating process and new demand from consumption stimulating will also have significant impact on consumption increase. In the short term,considering only direct effects,the construction of new infrastructure will increase CO2 emissions by 1.83 billion tons,while taking indirect effects into account,it will reduce CO2 emissions by 830 million tons. In the long run,new infrastructure will give full play to the emission reduction effect of intelligent upgrading and transformation of industries and green elements. By strengthening the green orientation,reasonably guiding capital flow,introducing supportive policies and implementing green incentive plans,new infrastructure can help achieve high-quality green and low-carbon development.
Keywords: | Investment ScaleNew Infrastructure ConstructionThe Effect of Consumption Increase and Emission ReductionCarbon Emissions Peaking |