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《斯德哥尔摩协议》后的也门局势进展及其对海湾地区安全的影响

文章摘要

2018年,亲胡塞力量与反胡塞集团在荷台达紧张对峙,造成荷台达危机。在联合国也门问题特使格里菲斯的积极斡旋以及美国对沙特施加的强压下,胡塞运动与哈迪政府于2018年末在瑞典达成《斯德哥尔摩协议》。然而,协议包含的三个主要内容——战俘交换、荷台达停火和塔伊兹地位协商均进展有限。此外,双方在南北战线的冲突加剧,并围绕议会合法性问题展开争夺。也门战争迟迟无法结束,不仅造成也门大量的人员伤亡和严峻的人道主义危机,而且加剧了海湾国家间的战略竞争和敌对。此外,战争造成的恐怖主义、环境破坏和女性不安全问题将对海湾地区安全造成长期影响。目前来看,也门实现全面和平仍然困难重重,也门民众和国际社会需要共同努力,构建解决也门问题的综合框架。

Abstract

In 2018,the Saudi coalition and the Huthis caused the Hodeida crisis. With the mediation of UN Special Envoy Martin Griffiths,and the pressure imposed by the US against Saudi Arabia,the Huthis and the Hadi Government reached the Stockholm Agreement in late 2018. However,the three main issues of the agreement—prisoner swap,the Hodeida agreement and the Taiz understanding—have made limited progress. In addition,the conflicts in the other fronts have intensified,and they struggled for legitimacy terribly. The lasting Yemen war causes a large number of casualties and serious humanitarian crises in Yemen,and worsens strategic competition and hostility among the Gulf States. Moreover,terrorism,environmental damage and gender security caused by war will have long-term effects on Gulf security. It is still difficult to achieve comprehensive peace in Yemen. The Yemeni people and the international community need to work together to build a comprehensive framework for solving the problems of Yemen.

作者简介
朱泉钢:朱泉钢,法学博士,中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所助理研究员,主要从事中东政治和中东国际关系问题研究。