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2018年总统制下土耳其的政治社会前景——经济视角的观察

文章摘要

2018年6月24日,埃尔多安通过提前大选,成为土耳其共和国总统制下新一届总统,开启了国家政治体制由议会制转向总统制的新历程。总统制下,正义发展党将继续增强其对土耳其政治、经济和社会治理能力,意图实现埃尔多安总统连任两届,任期延长至2028年的目标。届时,埃尔多安将成为土耳其共和国历史上执政时间最长的总统。本文从经济视角对总统制下土耳其面临的外部环境和结构调整困境进行了剖析,并在分析土耳其政治体制和政策环境变化的基础上,指出实现经济的反弹和再平衡,以遏制货币危机的溢出效应,降低经济因素对土耳其政治社会稳定性的冲击是新一届总统内阁的首要任务。

Abstract

On June 24,2018,Erdogan became the new president of the Republic of Turkey through early elections,which opened a new course in the transition of the national political system from the parliamentary system to the presidential system. Under the presidential system,the Justice Development Party will continue to strengthen its political,economic and social governance capabilities in Turkey,with the intention of achieving President Erdogan’s re-election for two terms and extending his term to 2028. By then,Erdogan will become the longest-serving president in the history of the Republic of Turkey. This paper analyzes the external environment and structural adjustment dilemma faced by Turkey under the presidential system from an economic perspective. On the basis of analyzing the changes in the Turkish political system and policy environment,it points out that the economic rebound and rebalancing can be achieved to curb the spillover of the currency crisis. The effect of reducing the impact of economic factors on the political and social stability of Turkey is the primary task of the new presidential cabinet.

作者简介
魏敏:魏敏,经济学博士,中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所研究员。