2016年以来,中东地区的反恐形势呈现出三个新特征:其一,反恐联盟化趋势已初露端倪;其二,教派矛盾被人为激化,中东地区反恐形势变得日趋复杂;其三,中东地区已成为国际恐怖主义的主要策源地。尽管“伊斯兰国”连遭重创,但通过不断强化“全球策划、全球协调、全球联动”的暴恐能力,以及极端思想的针对性、渗透性和迷惑性,“伊斯兰国”在短期内仍然会对全球安全构成较大的威胁,且难以被清除。笔者赞同众多学者专家做出的未来中东地区反恐形势不容乐观的结论,并尝试从教派矛盾和解经主体多元化两个角度进行阐释。
Since 2016,the anti-terrorism situation in the Middle East region presents three new characteristics. Firstly,the anti-terrorist coalition trend has revealed its importance. Secondly,the sectarian conflicts have artificially intensified so that the anti-terrorism situation in the Middle East region is becoming more complicated. Thirdly,the Middle East has turn into the hotbed of international terrorism. Although “Islamic State” continues to be hard hit,it still constantly strengthen both the “global planning,global coordination,global linkage” ability of violence and terrorism and the Pertinence,permeability,and deceptive of the extreme thought to make itself a large threat of the global security and difficult to be cleared in the short term. The author agrees on the conclusion of many scholars and experts to the unproming future of the Middle East anti-terrorism situation and tries to interpret his opinion from the sectarian conflict and the diversification on the objects of the interpreting classics.