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热词推荐: 能源基础设施

中东粮食进口安全问题

文章摘要

中东地区是全球最为重要的粮食进口市场之一,该地区绝大多数国家所需粮食及基本食品严重依赖进口。在中东国家中,粮食进口安全问题较为突出的主要是那些基本食品进口支付能力较低的国家,特别是支付能力较低的非产油国,这些国家由于出口收入难以满足粮食进口用汇需求,很难阻止国际高粮价向国内市场的传递,而国内粮价的上涨往往又易引发严重的政治动荡。中东粮食进口安全问题的产生首先与该地区恶劣的农业生产条件有关,由于缺乏农业生产必需的土地资源和水资源,中东地区除极少数国家外,其他各国均不具备实现粮食自给能力。而与恶劣的自然条件相比,中东粮食进口安全问题更是与该地区非产油国工业制造业发展滞后、贸易账户存在巨额赤字、难以满足粮食进口用汇需求有关。由于中东粮食进口安全问题具有外生性的特点,未来国际粮价的走势将是影响中东粮食进口安全状况的首要因素。由于预计未来全球粮食价格及其他基本食品价格将会回落,中东粮食进口安全状况也会有所改善,粮食问题在该地区再次引发政治动荡的可能性将大幅降低。

Abstract

Middle East is one of the most important food import markets in the world and most of the countries in this region heavily dependent on imported cereal grains and other basic foods. However,even most of the countries heavily dependent on imported food in this region,food security problems only existing in countries with low capability of affording imported food,especially existing in low affordability countries neither without abundant oil or gas export revenues. Due to the reason that export revenues cannot meet the capital demand for importing basic foods,the above mentioned countries couldn’t prevent the high food prices in international market transfer into their domestic market and the rises of food prices in domestic market are often easy to cause serious political instabilities. The food import security problem of Middle Eastern countries is firstly associated with their poor agriculture production conditions,due to the lack of land and water resources necessary for agriculture,most of the Middle Eastern countries don’t have the capability to achieve food self-sufficiency. Comparing with the poor natural conditions,the food import security problems of Middle Eastern countries are more closely related to the developing lagging of their manufacturing industry which make them accumulated huge deficit in their external balance. Due to the causes of Middle Eastern countries’ food import security problems are exogenous,the changes of international food prices will deliver important influences on the food import security situation of Middle Eastern countries in the future. And because the prices of cereal grains and other basic foods in the international market will fall in the future,the food import security conditions of Middle Eastern countries will be improved,and the food prices will unlikely provoke political instabilities in this region in the near future.

作者简介
刘冬:刘冬,经济学博士,中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所助理研究员,主要研究领域为中东经济、能源经济。