叙利亚爆发政治危机的主要原因来自两大方面，一是受到“阿拉伯革命”风暴的严重冲击，二是国内存在的一系列矛盾所引发。叙利亚爆发政治危机初期，政府尚有能力控制局面，在卡扎菲政权倒台后，叙局势急转直下，欧美腾出手，干预叙利亚危机被提到议事日程上。阿拉伯联盟强势介入叙利亚事务，高调担起在阿盟框架内调停叙危机的重任，但阿盟观察团的工作最终无果而终。胡拉惨案发生后，反对派宣布不再遵守安南的和平计划，联合国叙利亚监督团团长穆德宣布，监督团将暂停在叙活动，停止外出巡视，安南特使提出的“六点和平建议”已基本上夭折，在联合国框架内解决叙利亚危机的努力宣告失败。只要不发生强有力的外来军事干预，仅凭反对派的自身实力，短期内难以对巴沙尔政权构成致命威胁，如果一旦发生外来军事干预，叙利亚极有可能迟早顶不住，也就是说，起决定因素的还是外来军事干预与否，这将成为影响叙利亚未来局势发展的决定性变量。
The reason for the political crisis in Syria has mainly come from two aspects.On one hand,"Arab revolution"has had a severe impact on Syria.On the other hand,there exists a series of domestic conflicts in this country.The Syria government had been able to control the crisis in the early stage.However,the situation has rapidly deteriorated since the West has caught the opportunity to interfere in Syria after the fall of the Gaddafi regime.The Arab League has also deeply involved in Syria affairs.It has ever undertook the responsibility to solve this crisis,yet failed.The political opposition in Syria has announced that they will not conform to Annan's Peace Plan after the Houla massacre.Mood,head of UN Supervision Mission in Syria has announced the supervision activities in Syria will be suspended,and Annan's Peace Plan has come to the end.Namely,it has also failed for the UN to solve the crisis in Syria.In the short term,the political opposition in Syria will not pose a deadly threat against the Bashar regime without the help of external forces.However,Bashar regime will be likely to collapse if external forces decide to intervene in Syria affairs.In other words,the prospect of political crisis in Syria,to larger extent,will depend on whether the foreign forces will intervene or not.
