2011年1月25日爆发的埃及政治动荡是埃及数十年来规模最大的一次群众集会游行示威运动。这次运动可以划分为两个阶段,第一个阶段是以推翻前总统穆巴拉克为目标的“倒穆运动”。第二个阶段则是反对派要求军队还政于民的“二次革命”。从表面来看,2011年底的国际粮价暴涨是埃及政治动荡爆发的直接原因。但是,粮食价格之所以能够对埃及政治产生影响还有着深刻的经济、政治和社会背景。从经济角度来看,埃及较低的粮食自给率导致其国内粮价极易受到国际市场价格波动的影响,而制造业不发达,劳动力吸纳能力有限又导致埃及家庭普遍贫困,生活水平对粮食价格的波动极为敏感。而从政治方面来看,严重的腐败问题削弱了执政集团的执政基础,在埃及民众看来,国家所有的经济问题、社会问题都跟腐败有关,粮价上涨自然也是政府的责任。而从社会层面来看,埃及大量失业青年的存在、贫困人口分布的高度集中又为反对派发动大规模游行示威运动创造了条件。埃及政治动荡的爆发源于国际粮价的上涨。国际粮价的走势和埃及政府对粮食价格的可承受力也就成为影响埃及局势未来走势的重要因素。从国际粮价的走势来看,国际粮价很可能会进入较为稳定的高粮价均衡时期。因此,不管未来埃及的政治制度如何,如果执政集团不进行彻底的经济改革,促进劳动密集型产业的发展,将埃及的人口红利转变为生产力,都将很难获得坚实的执政基础。
The 2011 Egypt political turmoil took up on 25 January 2011,it was the largest civil resistance movement in decades,which featured a series of demonstrations and marches. The turmoil can be divided into two stages,in the first stage,protesters demanded the overthrow of the regime of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and in the second stage,protesters demanded the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces transfer political power to the democratically elected governments as soon as possible. The immediate cause of 2011 Egypt political turmoil was the price rising in international grain market since the end of 2010. However,there were other economical,political and social factors make the regime of Egypt is vulnerable under the high grain prices. Economically,it is the low self-sufficient rate of grains make the food prices of Egypt sensitive to the international market and the less developed manufacturing industry make the ordinary Egypt family poor and sensitive to the food price volatility;politically,it is widespread corruption weakened the ruling basis of the ruling group and make the ordinary Egypt people tend to blame the government for all their sufferings,including the rises of food prices;and socially,it is the massive unemployed young people and the situation of most disadvantaged people living in the slum provide the conveniences for opposition parties convening massive anti-government demonstrations. Since the food prices may come into a high-price balance in the international market. No matter what kind of political system be erected after the turmoil,if Egypt still fails to promote the profound economic reform,speed up the development of manufacturing industry,turn the"demographic dividend"into productivity,it will be very difficult for the ruling group gaining the support of Egypt people.