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埃及2023年总统选举及国家发展前景

文章摘要

2023年埃及举行总统选举,塞西以89.6%的高得票率成功连任,将继续执政至2030年。在此前两个任期,塞西在国内治理和对外交往领域实施了一系列改革举措,总体稳控了国家的政治、安全局势。但在国内外多重因素影响下,经济颓势未能扭转,甚至有加剧风险,民生难题未得到解决。在新任期内,塞西政府在国家内外政策层面都将以保稳求进为核心目标。对内,塞西政府通过加大经济改革力度、强化社会保障举措来稳定经济形势,维护社会稳定;对外,塞西政府将在保障国家安全的基础上,持续参与地区事务,深化多元合作,以提升国家的战略价值和外交筹码。塞西内政的改革动向和外交的多元导向给国家发展带来了新的希望。然而,国家经济、政治结构的固有短板和冲突难控的地缘环境成为塞西政府面对的重重挑战。

Abstract

Sisi was successfully re-elected with 89.6% of the vote in the presidential election held in Egypt in 2023,and will remain in power until 2030. During his previous two terms,Sisi has implemented a series of reform measures in the fields of domestic governance and foreign exchanges,and has generally stabilized the country’s political and security situation. However,under the influence of multiple factors in the country and abroad,the economic decline has not been reversed,and there is even a risk of intensification,and the problems of people’s livelihood have not been solved. It is expected that during his new term,Sisi’s government will focus on maintaining stability and seeking progress at the level of domestic and foreign policies. Internally,he has stabilized the economic situation and maintained social stability by intensifying economic reforms and strengthening social security measures. Externally,on the basis of safeguarding national security,he will continue to participate in regional affairs and deepen diversified cooperation,so as to enhance the country’s strategic value and diplomatic leverage. From the current point of view,the reform trend of domestic affairs and the diversified orientation of foreign affairs have brought new hope for the country’s development. However,the inherent shortcomings of the country’s economic and political structure and the uncontrollable geopolitical environment of the conflict have also become the challenges that Sisi’s government will face.

作者简介
王金岩:王金岩,中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所副研究员,社会文化研究室副主任,中国社会科学院海湾研究中心副秘书长,主要研究领域为中东社会发展、阿拉伯文化思想等。
郝诗羽:郝诗羽,宁夏大学中国阿拉伯国家研究院副教授,主要研究领域为中东社会文化及埃及。