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2023~2024年中东国际关系形势及展望

文章摘要

2023~2024年,美国持续在中东地区推进新战略并跟进一系列政策予以支撑,俄罗斯、中国等非西方大国密切或深化了与中东国家特别是阿拉伯国家的关系。新一轮巴以冲突爆发后,美国不遗余力地支持以色列,欧洲大国在支持以色列的同时也与美国拉开了距离,俄罗斯、中国注重凝聚国际社会共识、积极推动巴以停火止战。与此同时,中东国家缓和态势在多条轨道上持续推进。但因未能解决驱动该地区冲突产生的许多深层次矛盾,缓和态势对解决地区冲突的作用有限。新一轮巴以冲突的爆发是一个显著表现。在巴以冲突持续的背景下,中东地区冲突升级风险加大,美国中东新战略的内在矛盾凸显,其国际公信力和国家形象严重受损。展望未来,中东在美国全球战略中的地位可能提升,中东大国战略自主和“多向结交”政策或更显著,中国与阿拉伯国家规划关系发展新蓝图。

Abstract

In 2023-2024,the United States continues to push forward its new strategy in Middle East and follows up with series of policies to support it,while Russia,China and other non-Western powers have deepened their relations with the Middle East countries,especially with the Arab countries. After the outbreak of the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict,the United States has spared no effort to support Israel,the major powers in Europe has also supported Israel yet with some differences from the the United States. Russia and China focuses on building international consensus and actively promotes a ceasefire to stop the war between Israel and Hamas. At the same time,the détente among Middle Eastern countries has continued to advance on multiple tracks. However,the détente has had a limited effect on resolving regional conflicts because it has failed to address many of the deep-rooted factors that driving the conflicts in this region. The outbreak of this new round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is a notable manifestation of it. Under the Palestinian-Israeli conflict lasting,the risk of escalation of the conflicts in Middle East has increased,and the inherent contradictions of the U.S. new strategy in Middle East have come to the forefront,with serious damage to its international credibility and national image. Looking ahead,the Middle East’s position in U.S. global strategy may increase,the strategic autonomy of Middle Eastern powers and their policy of “multi-directional diplomacy” may become more prominent,and China has planed a new blueprint for developing its relations with the Arab countries.

作者简介
王凤:王凤,中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所副研究员,国际关系研究室主任,主要研究领域为中东国际关系、伊斯兰教、阿富汗和伊朗等。