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2022~2023年中东国际关系形势及展望

文章摘要

2022年以来,在中美战略博弈加剧以及乌克兰危机爆发的背景下,中东国际关系在战略层面呈现出重大变化。首先,大国在中东地区的竞争继续呈现多极化态势。受全球战略调整影响,美国在中东地区加紧战略收缩,它在中东地区的主导地位进一步下降。乌克兰危机爆发后,俄罗斯努力在中东扩大“朋友圈”,以全力应对美国和西方的系统性制裁。与此同时,伴随“三环峰会”的成功召开,中国与阿拉伯国家间加强了战略互信与务实合作,中国在中东地区的影响力进一步提升。其次,地区大国进一步加强战略自主,积极开展多元外交。沙特阿拉伯、土耳其、伊朗等不仅没有在大国竞争中“选边站队”,而且以自身利益为主,积极推动独立自主、灵活平衡的多元外交,它们在地区事务以及全球事务中的影响力上升。再次,受上述两大类因素影响,地区缓和态势进一步加强。尤其是在中国支持与斡旋下,沙特阿拉伯与伊朗实现历史性和解。在沙伊和解带动下,伊朗开始修复与其他阿拉伯国家的关系。作为伊朗的盟友,叙利亚也开始修复与阿拉伯国家的关系,最终重返阿拉伯国家联盟。展望未来,在大国竞争多极化以及地区大国影响力不断上升的前提下,中东国际关系将进入重要重塑期。

Abstract

Since 2022,the international relations in the Middle East have shown significant changes at the strategic level against the background of the intensification of the U.S.-China strategic game and the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis. Firstly,the competition among super powers in the Middle East continues to show a multipolar trend. Influenced by global strategic adjustments,the U.S. has intensified its strategic contraction in the Middle East,and its dominant position in the region has further declined. After the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis,Russia has made efforts to expand its “circle of friends” in the Middle East in order to fully respond to the systematic sanctions imposed by the United States and the West. At the same time,China’s influence in the Middle East has been further enhanced by the successful co-convening of the “Three Rings Summit”,which strengthened the strategic mutual trust and practical cooperation between China and Arab countries. Secondly,regional powers have further strengthened their strategic autonomy and actively engaged in diversified diplomacy. Saudi Arabia,Turkey,Iran,etc.,not only hasn’t taken sides in the competition among super powers,but also has been able to actively promote an independent,flexible and balanced pluralistic diplomacy with their own interests as the main focus,and their influence in regional as well as global affairs has thus increased. Thirdly,regional détente has been further strengthened by the influence of the above two categories of factors. In particular,with China’s support and mediation,Saudi Arabia and Iran have achieved a historic rapprochement. Improved by the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement,Iran has begun to repair its relations with other Arab countries. As an ally of Iran,Syria has also begun to repair its relations with Arab countries,and eventually has been able to return to the League of Arab States. Looking ahead,the international relations in Middle East will enter an important reshaping period under the premise of multipolar competition among super powers and the rising influence of regional powers.

作者简介
王凤:王凤,中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所副研究员,国际关系研究室主任,主要从事中东国际关系、伊斯兰教、阿富汗和伊朗国别研究。