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2022~2023年中东安全形势与展望

文章摘要

2022年以来,中东局势发展总体呈缓和态势,地区国家间关系加速改善,地区大多数热点和难点问题有所降温、冲突降级。中国成功调解沙特与伊朗的矛盾加速了中东“和解潮”,对中东和平与稳定产生重要而积极的影响,有利于地区新安全观的塑造和地区新安全架构的构建。缓和是地区主要国家在内外诸多因素下做出的战略决策,因此未来一段时间中东仍将保持缓和态势。与此同时,中东结构性安全困境依然没有发生根本变化,该地区依然面临多样化安全与稳定挑战,巴以问题依然尖锐,苏丹爆发严重内部冲突,伊核问题深陷僵局,美国在地区推行大国战略竞争恶化地区安全环境。

Abstract

Since 2022,the situation in the Middle East has shown an overall trend of relaxation,with accelerated improvement in relations among regional countries and the cooling of most regional hotspot issues. China’s successful mediation of the Saudi-Iranian conflict accelerated the tide of detente in the Middle East,and had an important and positive impact on the security and stability of the Middle East. It is expected that this strategic trend of detente in the Middle East will continue for some time to come. However,the structural security dilemma in the Middle East has not changed fundamentally. The region still faces a variety of security and stability challenges. The Palestine-Israel conflict continues to escalate,a serious internal conflict has broken out in Sudan,the Iranian nuclear issue remains stuck in a stalemate,and the United States is intensifying its strategic competition with China and Russia in the region and building new regional security architecture.

作者简介
唐志超:唐志超,中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所中东发展与治理研究中心主任、中国社会科学院大学国际政治经济学院教授,主要研究领域包括中东政治、中东国际关系、库尔德问题等。
李子昕:李子昕,中国国际问题研究院发展中国家研究所助理研究员,主要从事中东国际关系研究。