2021年中东暴恐活动呈现收缩态势，实际是处于转折过程之中。在三类暴恐活跃区中，叙利亚、伊拉克是暴恐多发区域，但暴恐袭击有所减少；埃及、土耳其和也门等地的极端暴力活动均有所放缓；利比亚、突尼斯等暴恐新热点地区的安全形势也在向好发展。国际恐怖组织在中东继续进行收缩性的策略调整，“ISIS”与“基地”组织以低功耗的活动模式积蓄力量、等待新的发力时机。中东暴恐活动对其他地区具有辐射影响，在非洲地区寻求更多的空间，向欧美地区的辐射暂且缓和但长期压力依然严峻。在转折大背景下，三类主体在不同维度继续加大打击极端暴力力度，域外大国重点采取扶持当地武装、提供情报支持等方式；中东国家继续突出武力打击、精准打击；中东社会力量尤其是部落武装以当地秩序维系者的身份参与打击极端暴力的行动。中东打击极端暴力需要警惕转折过程的起伏。
In 2021，violent and terrorist activities in the Middle East show a shrinking trend，which is actually in the process of turning. In the three types of active areas，Syria and Iraq are the areas where violent and terrorist attacks occur frequently，but these attacks have been reduced to a certain extent. Egypt，Turkey and Yemen have seen a slowdown in extreme violence. The security situation in Libya，Tunisia and other new hotspots of violent attack is also improving. International terrorist organizations continue to adjust their strategies in the Middle East，“ISIS” and “Al Qaeda” accumulate their strength and wait for new opportunities with low-power activities. The violence in the Middle East has a radiating effect on other regions，looking for more space in Africa. Radiation to Europe and the United States has eased for the time being，but long-term pressure is still severe. In the transition period，the three main bodies continue to strengthen the fight against extreme violence in different dimensions，and the major powers outside the region focus on supporting local armed forces and providing intelligence support. Countries in the Middle East continue to strike terrorist activities precisely. Social forces especially tribal forces in the Middle East have been involved in the fight against extreme violence as local order keepers. Fighting extreme violence in the Middle East requires vigilance against the ups and downs of the transitional process.
