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土耳其:新冠肺炎疫情下政治、经济形势与前景展望(2020)

文章摘要

新冠肺炎疫情突如其来和蔓延对刚从里拉危机中缓慢复苏的土耳其经济又是一次严重冲击。在防控疫情的过程中,土耳其采取了隐性群体免疫的方法,在出台疫情防控措施后,高频次调整疫情防控政策和措施,保障工厂开工,以维护经济的平稳运行。基于较为完备的医疗卫生体系、完善的医疗卫生基础设施、公开透明的疫情信息发布系统和土耳其的人口结构特征,土耳其初期的疫情防控是有成效的。埃尔多安总统及其领导的执政联盟面临正义与发展党党内分裂和新政党崛起、经济增长乏力、宗教势力增强和社会进一步分化的风险,但是埃尔多安总统时代远未结束,土耳其政治、经济、社会发展前景可期。

Abstract

The outbreak and spread of the COVID-19 Epidemic is another severe shock to the Turkish economy,which has just recovered from the lira Crisis and is slowly recovering. In the process of preventing and controlling the pandemic,Turkey has adopted the method of recessive herd immunity. After the introduction of epidemic prevention and control measures,Turkish government has frequently adjusted the policies and measures to prevent the pandemic and ensured the production in factories in order to maintain the stability of the economy and society. Based on the comprehensive medical and health system,a sound medical and health infrastructure,an open and transparent epidemic information release system,and the demographic characteristics,the prevention and control on epidemic in Turkey is effective. President Erdogan and his ruling coalition is facing the risks of split within the AKP and the rise of new parties,weak economic growth,increased religious power,and further social divisions. However,the era of President Erdogan is far from over,the prospects on Turkey’s political,economic and social development is promising.

作者简介
魏敏:魏敏,中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所研究员,主要研究方向为中东经济、土耳其政治、经济和社会发展。