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中东新一轮抗议潮及其影响

文章摘要

2019年西亚北非地区多国爆发了抗议游行示威活动,民众旨在表达对经济低迷、失业率高企、民生困苦以及政治腐败的不满。示威活动在多国导致领导人下台、政府重组,但新政府相关举措并未有效缓解民众不满,抗议示威在多国仍然时有发生并延续至今。此轮抗议示威是继2011年“阿拉伯之春”后,西亚北非地区再次出现的泛区域性社会动荡,加剧了中东政治碎片化,因此有人称其为“第二次阿拉伯之春”。然而,此次抗议浪潮的政治诉求与十年前的“阿拉伯之春”存在细微差别,域外国家干预具有服务于美伊博弈需要的明显特征,特别是本轮示威活动的外溢效应显著降低。相关国家社会动荡对本地区国家间力量平衡产生冲击,但并未改变中东地缘政治的总体格局,相反,其加速了既有地缘政治演变的节奏。2020年初突发的新冠疫情和暴跌的石油价格,令中东国家面临更加严峻的国家治理危机。本轮抗议浪潮尚未完全结束,其影响或将延续。

Abstract

In 2019,protests and demonstrations broke out in many countries in West Asia and North Africa to express dissatisfaction with the economic downturn,high unemployment rate,people’s poor livelihood and political corruption. Demonstrations in many countries led to the resignation of leaders and government reorganization,but related measures did not effectively alleviate public dissatisfaction. Protests still occur in many countries and continue to this day. This wave of protests and demonstrations is the first time of pan-regional social unrest reappearing in West Asia and North Africa after the “Arab Spring” in 2011,and exacerbated political fragmentation in the Middle East. Thus,some experts named it “the Second Arab Spring.” However,the political demands of this wave of protests are slightly different from the “Arab Spring” ten years ago. The intervention of foreign countries has obvious characteristics to serve the needs of the US-Iran game. Especially,the spillover effect of this round of demonstrations has been significantly reduced. The social turmoil in the relevant countries has impacted the balance of power among the regional countries,but it has not changed the overall geopolitical pattern in the Middle East. On the contrary,it has accelerated the pace of existing geopolitical changes. The outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic and plunging energy prices in 2020 have made the Middle East countries face a more severe governance crisis. This wave of protests has not been completely over,and its impact may continue.

作者简介
李子昕:李子昕,中国国际问题研究院发展中国家研究所助理研究员,主要研究方向为中东政治、地区安全、反恐及去极端化。