您好,欢迎来到一带一路数据库!

全库
全文
  • 全文
  • 标题
  • 作者/机构
  • 关键词
  • 主题词
  • 摘要
高级检索
热词推荐: 能源基础设施

2022年中东经济形势及前景展望

文章摘要

2022年,全球经济经历一系列动荡,面临严峻挑战。乌克兰危机引发能源和粮食等大宗商品价格飙升,导致全球能源危机和粮食不安全问题。美联储加息引发全球加息潮,全球金融环境不断收紧,新兴市场和发展中经济体资本外流,全球通胀处于几十年里的最高水平,新冠疫情持续不退。受益于高油价,尽管面临严峻挑战,但中东地区经济仍强势反弹,石油出口国尤其是海合会国家经济增长推动整个地区经济继续复苏。然而,由于中东地区经济对外依赖度高,乌克兰危机对中东地区部分国家造成一定影响,导致其通胀高企、资本外流、粮食不安全问题加剧。展望2023年,全球经济陷入衰退,中东经济将继续放缓。同时,由于资源禀赋差异,石油出口国和石油进口国面临不同的增长前景。

Abstract

In 2022,the global economy experienced a series of turbulence and faced severe challenges. Ukraine crisis conflict triggered the soaring prices of energy,food and other commodities,leading to the global energy crisis and food insecurity. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike triggered a global interest rate hike. The global financial environment has been tightening,capital outflows from emerging markets and developing economies,inflation is at the highest level in decades,and the COVID-19 continues unabated. Benefiting from high oil prices,despite facing severe challenges,the Middle East region’s economy has rebounded strongly,and the economic growth of oil exporting countries,especially GCC countries,has driven the overall regional economy to continue to recover. However,due to the high external dependence of the Middle East economy,the Ukraine crisis has had a certain impact on some countries in the Middle East,leading to high inflation,capital outflows and increased food insecurity. Looking ahead to 2023,the global economy will further slow down,and growth in the MENA region is projected to decelerate from 5.3 percent in 2022 to 3.1 percent in 2023 before increasing slightly to 3.4 percent in 2024. Due to differences in resource endowments,oil exporting and importing countries face different growth prospects.

作者简介
姜英梅:姜英梅,中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所副研究员,主要研究中东经济发展和金融问题。