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中国城市化发展水平与质量的协调性分析

文章摘要

目前中国城市化进程正面临着由“速度型”向“质量型”的转变,因此,必须正确处理好“提速”与“提质”的辩证关系,在追求城市化发展数量的同时,保障城市化发展质量。本文在探讨城市化发展质量的内涵、演变规律及影响因素的基础上,构建经济城市化发展质量、社会城市化发展质量、空间城市化发展质量构成的城市化发展质量综合测度模型,在对中国城市化发展质量进行测度的基础上,判定中国城市化发展水平与质量的协调性。研究发现:①城市化发展质量的变化过程是经济城市化发展质量、社会城市化发展质量及空间城市化发展质量协调发展的过程,城市经济系统及社会系统具有无限增长的趋势,而空间城市化保障度是有限的,城市人口系统、经济系统及社会发展系统必然会受到空间城市化保障能力的制约,最终城市化发展质量将变化为一条被拉伸的“S”形曲线。②2010年,中国城市化发展质量处于优化提升阶段,并逐渐提升,但城市化发展质量的提升速度慢于城市化水平的提升速度。1980~1992年为中国城市化发展质量的波动增长期,1993~2005年为稳定增长期,2005~2010年为中国城市化发展质量的加速增长期。③ 2010年中国城市化发展水平与钱式标准相比滞后约11.1个百分点,滞后于土地城市化水平约15.5个百分点(这与土地城市化的冒进式增长有很大关系),滞后于城市化发展质量约11.8个百分点。综上分析,目前中国人口城市化发展水平滞后约12个百分点。

Abstract

How to implement optimum speed urbanization,correctly handle the urbanization rate and quality,make the relationship between urbanization rate,resource environmental bearing capacity,urban development and the objective laws of economic growth in consistent,is always the focal point question of government departments and the academic circles. Based on the study of urbanization development quality(UDQ)connotation,mechanism and evolution of basis,through urbanization quality,speed and urbanization interactive coordinated relational analysis,from society,economy,space three aspects is proposed by three types of index,12 specific indices composed of urbanization development quality of 3d measuring synthesis index ball and discriminate standard. We introduce Atkinson model,construct the urbanization development quality poly-factor measure model and subsection measure model,then the Chinese urbanization development quality in overall evaluation. Research found that:(1)human elements under the influence of the reality in the urbanization development quality is more“S”curve that constitute the“S”type evolution curve,can be divided into elementary development,improving and optimizing ascension and late stage of sustainable development;(2)China urbanization development quality overall in optimizing ascension phases,and in slowly lift,but qualitative speeds slower than acceleration speed. The urbanization in 1980-2010 years quality can be divided into 1980-1992 fluctuations,1993-2005 stable growth,and 2005-2010 accelerated growth. (3)China urbanization development level compared with economic standard lag about 11.1 percentage points,compared with about non-agriculture level lags behind with 13.4 percentage points,compared with about land urbanization lags 16.9 percentage points(this land of urbanization in recent years and growth-but type growth has the very big relations),and compared with the urbanization development lag about quality 11.8 percentage points. Exclude land urbanization level growth-but type growth elements until 2010,China’s urbanization development lag about 12 percent.

作者简介
王德利:王德利,北京市社会科学院副研究员,博士,研究方向为城市化、区域与城市规划。
王洋:
高璇: