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2013~2014年新西兰政治发展与选情分析

文章摘要

2013年以来,新西兰政治发展平稳。国家党在施政纲领的指导下取得良好的施政效果,在民调中保持领先,正在积极争取实现三连任;工党一直努力改善2011年大选以来的颓势,寻求上台执政,但效果不佳;其他各政党发展状况不一,毛利党、联合未来党、行动党生存能力十分薄弱,绿党保持稳定,新西兰优先党成为左右局势的“造王者”等。另外,国家党政府决定继续维持MMP选举制度;全国选区增至71个等。基于此,就2014年9月大选前景而言,国家党处于边缘领先地位。

Abstract

New Zealand experienced a stable political situation in 2013-2014. National Party has got good governance results under the guidance of the policy agenda,always leading in the polls,is actively seeking to achieve a third term. Labor Party has been working to improve its downturn since the election of 2011 for coming to power,but the effects are poor. The development of other political parties,such as Maori Party,United Future Party and ACT are very fragile. Green Party remains stable while,New Zealand First becomes the kingmaker. In addition,the National Party government decided to maintain MMP electoral system;national constituencies add to 71 and so on. On these conditions,as for prospects of the general election in September 2014,the National Party holds a marginal lead.

作者简介
王婷婷:王婷婷,中山大学大洋洲研究中心助理研究员。