本文基于京津冀“十四五”规划实施评估与宏观经济模型，前瞻预测京津冀“十五五”期间发展前景。研究显示，“十四五”期间京津冀宏观经济持续稳定增长，但也存在区域发展不均衡问题。进一步比较发现，京津冀区域在人力资源要素方面仍存在短板。建议京津冀进一步优化调整区域发展策略，不断增强发展动力，加大人才引进力度，加快推动中国式现代化先行区建设，力争2030年区域经济总量占全国的比重提升至8.6%。
This article is based on the evaluation of the implementation of the “14th Five Year Plan” for the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region and the prediction of macroeconomic models，and provides a forward-looking forecast of the development prospects during the “15th Five Year Plan” period for the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region. Research shows that during the 14th Five Year Plan period，the macroeconomic growth of the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region will continue to be stable，but there are also regional development imbalances. Further comparison reveals that there are still shortcomings in the human resources elements in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region. It is suggested to further optimize and adjust the development strategy of the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region，continuously enhance the development momentum of Tianjin，increase talent introduction，accelerate the construction of the pilot area of Chinese path to modernization in Beijing Tianjin Hebei，and strive to increase the proportion of the total economic volume of Beijing Tianjin Hebei to the national proportion to 8.6% by 2030.
