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阿根廷:经济衰退加剧政治不确定性

文章摘要

2018年,执政的中右翼政党联盟“我们变革”占据阿根廷政坛的主导地位,反对派仍处于四分五裂状态,难以形成合力与执政联盟抗衡。但经济衰退导致政府的支持率急剧下降,加剧了2019年大选的不确定性。在汇兑危机的影响下,阿根廷经济收缩2.6%。为克服危机,政府与国际货币基金组织达成563亿美元的贷款协议,但不得不实施严格的财政紧缩政策。经济形势的恶化和通货膨胀的高启严重影响了社会指标的改善,并加剧了普通民众对政府的不满。受财政困难的影响,工资和社会福利水平出现下降。政府在外交方面成绩斐然。G20峰会的顺利举办成为马克里上任后最重要的外交成果。

Abstract

In 2018,the ruling center-right coalition Cambiemos occupied the dominant position of the Argentine political arena. The opposition was still in divisions,and it was difficult to unite to compete with the ruling coalition. However,the economic recession led to a sharp decline in government’s approval ratings,which increased the uncertainty of the presidential election in 2019. Because of the currency crisis,the Argentine economy contracted by 2.6% in 2018. To overcome the crisis,the government reached a US 56.3bn lending agreement with the IMF,but had to implement strict fiscal austerity policies. The deterioration of the economic situation and the high level of inflation seriously affected the improvement of social indicators and increased the dissatisfaction of people. Affected by financial difficulties,real wages and social welfare levels declined. The government made great achievements in diplomacy. The successful holding of the G20 summit became the most important diplomatic victory after Mr.Macri took office.

作者简介
林华:林华,经济学学士,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所社会文化研究室副研究员,阿根廷研究中心秘书长,主要研究拉美社会问题和阿根廷。