2018年,受中美贸易摩擦、国际金融市场波动加剧以及拉美国家处于超级大选周期的叠加影响,拉美自2017年以来触底反弹的复苏趋势受到压制。经济基本面呈现增长放缓、通胀上升、经常账户赤字扩大、货币贬值加剧等特征。就次区域而言,中美洲的增长情况好于加勒比地区和南美洲。各国经济因受外部影响机制不同以及国内应对能力相异而存在差异性。宏观政策方面,受严重财政赤字以及美国加息步伐加快的制约,拉美国家财政政策和货币政策的操作空间都缩小了。展望2019年,全球经济仍处于“不确定性增加和风险凸显”的形势中。鉴于短期内影响拉美地区的外部因素无法取得实质性改善,2019年的拉美经济增长仍然承受较大压力,甚至在某些情况下局部将面临风险大于机遇的严峻挑战。
In 2018,the recovery trend of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) economy which has rebounded from the bottom since 2017 was suppressed by the continuing escalated China-US trade frictions,the intensified fluctuations of international financial market and the super-election cycle in LAC countries. Economic fundamentals were characterized by slowing growth,rising inflation,widened current account deficits and intensifying currency devaluation. For the subregion,growth in Central America was better than in the Caribbean and South America. And there were also differences of growth rate among countries due to different external impact mechanisms and domestic reaction capacities. In terms of macro-economic policy,constrained by the severe fiscal deficit and the accelerated pace of interest rate increase in the United States,the room of fiscal and monetary policies in LAC countries has shrunk. In outlook of 2019,the global economy will still lie in the situation characterized by increasing uncertainty and highlighted risks. In view of lacking substantial improvement in the short term for external factors affecting Latin America,economic growth in LAC will still be under considerable pressure,and even in some cases severe challenges in which risks outweigh opportunities will occur.
Keywords: | Economic SituationLatin America and the CaribbeanCurrency FluctuationPrice of Primary CommodityGrowth and Differentiation |