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逐利与管控:特朗普政府的对拉新政

文章摘要

自特朗普政府上任以来,美国对拉美的关注逐渐回温。本届政府沿袭美国对拉美政策的基本精神,主要运用外交、贸易、移民、侨汇以及对外援助等政策工具对拉加以干预和控制。从影响结果上来看,拉美受特朗普新政的影响程度由北向南依次递减,即墨西哥、中美洲和加勒比地区成为受影响最深的地区,而南美洲则受其影响较小。贸易和侨汇政策对拉美的潜在影响广泛大于移民和对外援助政策;而在外交领域,拉美左翼执政国家受影响最大。受特朗普新政影响,拉美各国或将加强对外合作,抵消特朗普新政对拉负面冲击,实现地区多元化发展,包括中国在内的亚太地区将成为其必然的理性选择之一。

Abstract

Since the Trump administration took office,U.S.interest in Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) has gradually returned. The current administration follows the basic spirit of the US policies towards LAC and mainly uses such policy tools as diplomacy,trade,immigration,remittances and foreign aid to intervene and control LAC. In terms of the effects,the new policies play a descending role on LAC from north to south. That is,Mexico and Central America and the Caribbean became the most affected sub-region,while South America was less affected. The potential impact of trade and remittances on LAC is wider than that of migration and development aid. On the diplomatic front,LAC’s leftist governments have suffered most. Affected by Trump’s new policies,LAC countries may strengthen the external cooperation to offset the negative impact of U.S.policies,and realize a diversified development in the region. The Asia pacific region including China will become one of its inevitable rational choices.

作者简介
岳云霞:岳云霞,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所经济室研究员,主要研究领域为拉美经济、国际贸易与投资。
郑猛:郑猛,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所经济室助理研究员,主要研究领域为拉美经济、发展经济学。