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艰难的抉择:转变中的德国对华政策

文章摘要

德国目前正在对“以商促变”的传统对华政策进行反思,认为应该采取新的对华政策来适应当今“大国竞争”的新时代,以往德国从以经贸合作为核心的对华务实外交中获益巨大,“惯性的力量”使得德国对华政策调整显得“艰难”和“迟疑”,具体表现在三个方面:一是在经济层面,德国既需要与中国深入开展经贸合作以分享中国快速发展所带来的经济红利,同时又担心中国经济走向世界会给德国带来的巨大竞争压力;二是在外交层面,应该坚持以本国经济利益为基准,还是将维护欧盟团结放在更为优先的位置,德国仍然在两者间寻找新的均衡点;三是在国际层面,德国一方面对特朗普政府奉行的“美国优先”政策感到失望,对多边主义国际体系的未来充满担忧,但另一方面又对与中国合作来维护当前国际秩序表现出迟疑。这三个方面的权衡,推动着德国对华政策的新一轮调整。

Abstract

Germany is currently rethinking its traditional China policy of “promoting change through trade”;it has concluded that in the new era of “great power competition” it should adopt a new China policy. In the past,Germany has benefited greatly from its pragmatic diplomacy vis-à-vis China,focusing as it did on cooperation in economy and trade. But the adjustment of Germany’s China policy suffers from inertness:its “complexity” and “indecisiveness” are manifest at three levels. Firstly,on the economic level,in order to share the economic dividend brought about by China’s rapid development,Germany needs to closely cooperate with China in economy and trade. But at the same time Germany is concerned about the prodigious competitive pressure the Chinese economy exerts upon the world. Secondly,at the diplomatic level,Germany is still searching for a new equilibrium between two policy orientations:placing its national economic interests first or regarding EU unity as an even higher priority. Thirdly,at the international level,Germany is disappointed with the “America First” policy pursued by the Trump administration and worried about the future of the multilateral international system. But on the other hand Germany hesitates to cooperate with China to maintain the current international order. These three trade-offs lead to a new round of adjustments in Germany’s China policy.

作者简介
赵柯:赵柯,中共中央党校(国家行政学院)国际战略研究院副教授。
朱明玉:朱明玉,中共中央党校(国家行政学院)研究生院硕士研究生。