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热词推荐: 能源基础设施

世界电力市场发展现状与前景展望

文章摘要

2017年,世界发电量稳步上升,增速为2。8%,略低于全球经济增长速度。电力增长主要来自发展中国家,发达国家增长出现明显下降。区域发电形势出现分化,亚太国家依然占据世界份额首位,中东与非洲增长潜力很大。电源结构不断优化,化石燃料发电份额持续下降,风电与光伏发电成本下降幅度较大,太阳能发电增长潜力巨大。亚洲、俄罗斯与中东稳步推进核电建设,国际核电合作日益加强。2016年世界电力消费与经济增速基本持平。工业依然是最大用电产业,但电力消费份额持续下降。发电量构成中,核电、水电、风电、太阳能等清洁能源发电占比为30%左右。展望2019年,世界经济下行风险加大,将给电力生产、消费、投资与贸易带来不利影响,可再生能源发电、储能和电动汽车基础设施投资将依然持续增长。世界核电装机总量将继续呈现下降趋势。各国将采取更加积极的行动实施能源转型与电力市场改革,提高电力效率,促进绿色电力经济持续发展。

Abstract

In 2017-2018,the global economic growth rate is 3%. In 2017,the electricity generation steadily increased in the world,and the growth rate is 2.8%,slightly lower than the global economic growth rate. Electricity growth has come mainly from developing countries,with significant declines in growth in developed countries. Regional power generation situation has diverged,Asia-Pacific countries still occupy the highest share of the world,and the Middle East and Africa have great growth potential. The power supply structure is continuously optimized,the share of fossil fuel power generation continues to decline,and the potential for solar growth is huge. in 2016,the world electricity consumption and economic growth rate is basically flat. Industry remains the largest electricity industry,but the share of electricity consumption continues to decline. The cost of wind power and photovoltaic power generation decreased greatly. Asia,Russia and the Middle East have steadily advanced nuclear power construction,and international nuclear power cooperation has been increasingly strengthened. China generated 6.8 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity in 2018,up 6.8% from a year earlier,slightly higher than the 6.6% growth rate. In the composition of electricity generation,the proportion of clean energy generation such as nuclear power,hydropower,wind power and solar energy is about 30%. Looking ahead to 2019,increased downside risks to the world economy will have a negative impact on electricity production,consumption,investment and trade,and investment in renewable energy generation,energy storage and electric vehicle infrastructure will continue to grow. The total number of nuclear power installed in the world will continue to show a downward trend. Countries will take more active action to implement energy transformation and power market reform,improve power efficiency and promote the sustainable development of green power economy.

作者简介
刘喜梅:刘喜梅,经济学博士,华北电力大学经济管理学院副教授、能源管理研究所副所长,硕士生导师,中国社会科学院研究生院国际能源安全研究中心研究员,北京能源基地研究员,研究方向为能源电力经济政策、宏观经济与价格理论。