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热词推荐: 能源基础设施

世界天然气市场:供需分析与未来展望

文章摘要

近年来,全球天然气产业快速发展,供应和需求规模持续扩张。2018年,全球天然气消费增速创新高,产量稳步提升,但增速低于消费,整体市场仍然供需宽松,但供需差收窄。三大天然气市场价格上扬明显。液化天然气(LNG)贸易仍是拉动全球天然气贸易的主要力量。美国有望继卡塔尔、澳大利亚之后成为全球主要的LNG出口国;中国、印度以及亚洲新兴国家LNG需求持续增加,成为全球LNG需求增长的主要动力。2019年,全球LNG市场供应过剩局面有望持续,LNG价格将保持在未来几年相对低位。LNG贸易将更趋灵活,定价方式呈现多元化和与油价脱钩之势。

Abstract

In recent years,global natural gas industry has developed rapidly,and supply and demand has continued to expand. In 2018,the global natural gas consumption growth rate reached a five-year high,production continued to grow,and supply and demand remained loose. Global natural gas prices have risen significantly. LNG trade is still the main driving force of global natural gas trade. The United States is expected to become major LNG exporter after Qatar and Australia. While,the LNG demand of China,India and emerging Asian countries continue to increase,which is the main driving force of global LNG demand growth. In 2019,the oversupply of global natural gas market is expected to continue,the prices will remain relatively low in the next few years. LNG trade will become more flexible,and pricing mechanism will be diversified and decoupled from oil prices.

作者简介
白桦:白桦,经济学博士,中国石油集团经济技术研究院高级经济师,主要从事能源市场研究工作。