普京连任总统后签署的新“五月命令”确定了俄罗斯政府未来一段时期的主要目标,即提高生活质量和公民福祉,消除贫困和不平等。在这一总目标下,近两年俄罗斯在财政税收和货币金融领域推出了一系列结构性改革措施。在财政税收领域,设置了新的预算规则,增加财政收入的同时严格控制支出,政策执行的结果是2018年实现了财政盈余,国家储备也重新充盈;税制改革密切配合,提高矿产资源开采税税率的同时,降低石油出口关税税率,以期弱化能源价格和卢布汇率变动对国家财政收入的影响。在货币金融领域,俄罗斯继续实行基于利率管理的通货膨胀目标制,但2018年未能成功守住通胀4%的目标值。另外,预算新规也为央行平衡国际账户收支、对抗通货膨胀提供了重要手段。同时,那些尚未实施的改革措施,也已经产生某些社会经济效应。增值税税率提高引发了公众对于未来消费品价格上涨的担忧,从而推动了通货膨胀预期的高涨;而延迟退休年龄虽能增加未来养老金领取的额度,却也加重了现阶段的工作负担。总之,俄罗斯财政税收和货币金融领域的重大改革能否成功还有待观察。
The new “May Act” signed by Putin after his re-election has determined the main goals of Russia's reforms in the coming period, which is improving the living quality and well-being of citizens and eradicating poverty and inequality. Guided by these goals, Russia has introduced a series of structural reform measures in fiscal taxation and monetary fields in the past two years. In the field of fiscal taxation, new budget rules have been set up to increase fiscal revenue while strictly controlling expenditures. Fiscal surpluses have been achieved in 2018, and national reserves have been refilled. Tax reforms have been closely coordinated to the fiscal reform, such as increasing the tax rate on mineral resources mining while reducing the export tariff rate of oil in order to weaken the impact of energy prices and changes in the exchange rate of the Ruble on the state's fiscal revenue. In the monetary field, Russia continued to implement inflation targeting based on the interest rate management. However, because of some internal and external factors, it failed to keep the target of 4% in 2018. The new budget regulations also provided an important means for the central bank to balance international accounts and fight inflation. A number of reform measures that have not yet been implemented, such as raising the VAT rate and delaying retirement, have produced some socioeconomic effects, which was reflected in the operation of Russia's fiscal and financial system in 2018. The increase in the VAT rate has raised public concerns about future consumer price, which has boosted the inflation expectations. Delayed retirement could increase the amount of future pension payments, but it has also increased the current workload. All in all, large-scale reforms have been brewing in Russia's fiscal taxation and monetary fields, and these policies need to be tested in a longer period of time.
Keywords: | RussiaMonetary PolicyFinanceTaxation |