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2018年俄罗斯宏观经济形势:弱增长下寻求突破

文章摘要

俄罗斯经济2016年第四季度开始从危机中复苏,但2017年以来增长动力日趋弱化。2018年宏观经济表现出弱增长的特征。这表明,俄罗斯经济的突破性增长和发展还有赖于经济结构问题、基础设施问题、投资问题、进口替代问题的解决和财政货币政策的优化选择。2018年,俄罗斯退休金制度改革、增值税改革、进口替代政策和投资政策的效果,以及西方制裁的长期影响,是观察俄罗斯宏观经济形势的重要指标。不过,投资问题和对外经济民族主义政策与国内宏观财政货币政策的新自由主义之间存在逻辑矛盾,这将是影响俄罗斯长期经济增长的关键问题。

Abstract

In 2018, the former driving forces of economic recovery and growth was reduced and the macro economy presented a feature of weak growth. Namely, Russia has not found a suitable solution to address the structural problems, infrastructure problems, investment problems, import substitution problems and fiscal and monetary policy problems. The policy effects of the pension reform, value-added tax reform, import substitution policies and investment, as well as the long-term effects of sanctions, are important indicators for observing the direction of Russia's economic breakthrough. But in any case, the investment issue and the paradox between the nationalist policy towards foreign economy and the neo-liberal trend in the domestic macro-financial monetary policy are still key factors that affect Russia's long-term economic growth.

作者简介
徐坡岭:徐坡岭,博士,中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所俄罗斯经济研究室主任、研究员。