贸易自由化便利化是促进“贸易畅通”,构建“海丝”自由贸易区网络的重要内容。当前沿线各国贸易自由化便利化水平差异显著,南亚的贸易自由化、便利化水平均很低,是推进FTA谈判的优先领域;中国的贸易自由化水平较低,应着力扩大市场准入、减少贸易限制;东非、南部非洲的贸易便利化程度低,应着力建设基础设施、提高通关效率等。进一步量化评估贸易自由化便利化的国际经济效应,结果表明:贸易自由化、便利化均对沿线各区域的实际GDP、社会福利、进出口等产生正向激励,但贸易便利化的作用更显著;从区域看,贸易自由化对南亚、东非、南部非洲的进出口影响较大,贸易便利化对“海丝”各次区域进出口影响均十分显著,而二者均显著改善中国的贸易条件和社会福利水平;从产业角度看,贸易自由化便利化推动沿线各国朝着各自比较优势的方向发展,中国的纺织及制衣业、东盟的加工食品业、南亚的粮食作物、西亚北非的重工业、东非和南部非洲的畜牧和肉制品将获得加速发展;由于一些国家在贸易自由化、贸易便利化中呈正负相反的收益,因此两者同步推进是构建“海丝”自由贸易区网络的最优模式。
Trade liberalization and facilitation are important contents of promoting “unimpeded trade” and constructing “Maritime Silk Road Free Trade Area”. Now countries along MSR differ a lot in levels of trade liberalization and facilitation:South Asia is lowest in trade liberalization and facilitation and is the prior region for MSRFTA negotiation;China is relatively low-level in trade liberalization so that market access should be expanded and trade restrictions reduced. East and South Africa are low-level in trade facilitation so that infrastructure and customs efficiency should be improved. Results of the quantitative evaluation of their international economic effects show that:both trade liberalization and facilitation have positive effects on real GDP,national welfare,imports and exports of MSR countries,while the effects of trade facilitation are more significant;from the perspective of regions,trade liberalization does more good to imports and exports of South Asia,East Africa and South Africa,trade facilitation has very significant effects on imports and exports of all sub-region along MSR,while both significantly improve China’s terms of trade and welfare;from the perspective of sectors,trade liberalization and facilitation enhance the development of each countries’ comparative advantages—textiles and clothing in China,processed food in ASEAN,food crops in South Asia,heavy industries in West Asia and North Africa,and animal husbandry and meat products in East Africa and South Africa;due to their contradictory effects in some countries,the optimal mode to construct MSRFTA is synchronously advancing trade liberalization and facilitation.
Keywords: | 21st Century Maritime Silk RoadTrade FacilitationTrade LiberalizationEconomic Effects Evaluation |