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美日安全政策变化与朝鲜半岛形势分析

文章摘要

2017年,朝鲜半岛出现紧张局势,2018年年初以来,经过诸方努力,朝鲜半岛局势开始呈现出缓和的积极迹象,东亚局势随之发生重大变化。总体来看,在美国特朗普政府的不透明性政策风险以及日本安倍政府在安保政策方面的“冒险”的双重作用下,东北亚地区的安全形势日益严峻,以朝鲜半岛为焦点,出现了局部接近热战的可能性与紧迫性。其本质在于,美日两国的东北亚安全政策显示出深刻的地区性乃至全球性影响。中国需要冷静应对,未雨绸缪。

Abstract

In 2017,tensions appeared on the Korean peninsula,since early 2018,after many efforts,the Korean peninsula situation began to present a positive sign of easing,thus the East Asia situation has greatly changed. Overall,due to the United States government Trump placed the opacity of policy risk,and Japan Abe’s government in the aspect of security policy “adventure”,under these dual role,the security situation in northeast Asia is increasingly serious,the Korean peninsula as the focus,close to the possibility of war and urgency. Its essence is that,the northeast Asian security policy of the United States and Japan shows deep regional and even global influence. China needs to calm down and prepare for a rainy day.

作者简介
高兰:高兰,复旦大学日本研究中心教授。