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浅析伊朗“十月抗议”的前因后果

文章摘要

2017年末爆发的伊朗“十月抗议”是继2009年“绿色运动”之后伊朗发生的最大规模的反政府示威活动。一些伊朗民众以集体行动方式发泄对国家政治、经济和社会文化政策的强烈不满,并得到了外部敌对势力的一些声援。尽管这场抗议的直接导火索是经济问题,但根源在于社会矛盾激化,以及背后隐藏的政治派系博弈因素。随着特朗普政府对伊朗实施“极限施压”政策,伊朗国内经济深陷困境,社会团结和稳定遭受重创,鲁哈尼被迫搁置经济改革计划。虽然伊朗内外安全形势仍在持续恶化,但现阶段美国仍难以实现让伊朗经济崩溃乃至政权更迭的愿景。

Abstract

The Iranian “Dey-mah Protest ”in 2017 is the largest anti-government mass demonstration after the Green Movement in 2009.People went to street to express their grievances on government's political,economic and socio-cultural policies of the country,and this collective action got limited support from outside of Iran to some extent. Tough the flash point of this protest are economic issues,the deep reason of the protest is lying on the accumulation of Iran's domestic contradictions,and also received limited support from the outside. With the Trump administration's policy of “extreme pressure on Iran”,Iran's domestic economy is in deep trouble and social solidarity and stability have been hit hard. Although the security situation inside and outside Iran continues to deteriorate,it is still difficult for the United States to realize its vision of letting the Iranian economy collapse and even change its regime.

作者简介
刘岚雨:刘岚雨,清华大学社会科学学院博士研究生,伊朗德黑兰大学访问学者,主要研究领域为伊朗国内政经关系;
陆瑾:陆瑾,中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所副研究员,海湾研究中心副秘书长,主要从事伊朗问题及中伊关系问题研究。