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2017年伊朗与沙特阿拉伯关系解析

文章摘要

以2016年发生的“尼米尔事件”为标志,伊沙两国关系进入21世纪的冰点期。2017年以来,伊沙之间宗教旧恨未解又添新仇,暴恐袭击与代理人战争愈演愈烈,地缘争霸正面对抗,两国逐渐进入在经济、地缘政治、宗教影响力乃至地区领头羊之争方面的全面对抗。就影响伊沙两国关系因素而言,以国家利益和宗教影响力为代表的内因和美俄中东地缘战略的外因是伊沙关系走向的主导因素,同时两国的在意识形态和地区事务中的分歧也对伊沙关系有举足轻重的影响。由于地缘政治竞争中的利益难以调和,短期来看两国关系缓和空间不大,反而在石油市场领域的竞争可能加剧,同时美国将会在伊沙双边关系走向中扮演重要角色。

Abstract

Saudi Arabia undefined execution of the famous Shia cleric Nimir in 2016,which has become the trigger for the further deterioration of the relations of the two countries,and the chain reaction has pushed the relation of Iran and Saudi Arabia to the freezing point. At present,the relation of Iran and Saudi Arabia have shifted from competition of economic,geopolitical,religious influence in past to the regional leader of the overall confrontation. As far as the factors affecting the relations between the two countries are concerned,the internal factors,represented by national interests and religious influence,and the external factors leading the geopolitical strategy of the United States and Russia in the Gulf region are the leading factors in the direction of the relation of Iran and Saudi Arabia. At the same time,the differences between the two countries in ideology and regional affairs play an important role in the relations of Iran and Saudi Arabia. In the short term,it will be difficult for the two countries to reconcile their interests in geopolitical competition. However,from a long-term point of view,the two countries have common interests in the areas of regional economic cooperation,regional stability and economic transformation. Therefore,the reconciliation of relations between the two countries in the future is an inevitable trend of historical development.

作者简介
陈俊华:陈俊华,西南大学地理学院副教授,博士,西南大学伊朗研究中心副主任,中国地理学会西亚地理研究中心副主任;
汪泰:汪泰,西南大学地理学院硕士研究生;
任梦茹:任梦茹,西南大学地理学院硕士研究生。