本报告采用上海2018年前三季度宏观经济数据和历史数据，基于高质量发展的视角，对当前和过去一段时间上海经济运行态势进行了分析。研究表明，上海的经济结构趋于高端化，经济效率稳步提升，消费对经济增长的贡献较大；预测2018年全年GDP增速低于上年的概率较大；2019年处于基准情景的概率为65.5%，经济增速保持在6.5%的水平。针对当前和未来一段时间上海面临的内外部环境提出，经济发展短期来看靠促内需，长期来看要重视技术创新和制度创新，夯实实体经济，进一步营造良好的营商环境，构筑开放型经济新高地，促使上海经济实现更高质量发展。
Based on macroeconomic data of Shanghai in 2018 and before that，and from the perspective of high-quality development，we analyze current and past economic situation of Shanghai. The research shows that Shanghai’s economic structure tends to be high-end，its economic efficiency steadily improves，and consumption contributes more to economic growth；the probability of GDP growth in 2018 is lower than that in the last year；the probability of being in the baseline scenario in 2019 is 65.5%，and its GDP remains at the level of 6.5%. In view of the internal and external environment，we put forward that economic development depends on promoting domestic demand in the short term，however technological innovation and institutional innovation is very crucial in the long term，consolidating the real economy，further creating a good business environment，building a new open economic plateau，and promoting Shanghai’s economic development to a higher quality.
