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印尼宏观经济趋势分析(2017~2018)

文章摘要

本文从经济总量、产业结构、对外贸易与投资、货币金融稳定性等方面分析了印尼2017~2018年的宏观经济表现、趋势和政府政策取向。研究表明,2017~2018年上半年,印尼经济整体保持了持续增长,物价稳定,信息通信和运输仓储等产业发展较快,政府收支平衡改善。但也面临经济增速落后于其他主要东盟国家,贸易余额连续下滑至赤字,经常项目赤字扩大到超过GDP 3%的水平,货币大幅贬值等问题。从趋势上看,经济下行压力较大,短期内仍会出现资本外流,金融市场风险增大,但商业景气仍然相对稳健。

Abstract

In this chapter,Indonesian macro-economy performance,economic and policy trends from 2017-2018 are analyzed from the following aspects:economic aggregate,industrial structure,foreign trade and investment,and monetary and financial stability. The study shows that the overall economy of Indonesia has maintained stable growth and price stability from 2017 to the first half of 2018. Government budget balance has also improved. Sectors such as Information communication,transportation and warehousing are developing at a relative high speed. On the other hand,the economy is also facing some major problems,such as growth rate lagging behind other major ASEAN countries,trade balances falling to deficits,current-account deficits expanding to 3% of GDP,as well as substantial currency devaluation. These trends indicate increasing economic downward pressure,capital outflow,and increasing financial market risks. Yet the business environment is still relatively stable.

作者简介
左志刚:左志刚,博士,广东外语外贸大学教授,印尼研究中心研究员。