2017年7月至2018年9月期间，全球大宗商品市场经历了一波先大幅上涨、后快速下跌的震荡上行行情，整体价格上涨了9.0%。2017年7月至2018年5月下旬，全球经济复苏、石油减产、地缘政治风险上升、美国对伊朗原油和俄罗斯铝出口的制裁、中国削减煤炭产能、美国谷物种植减少等因素，导致大宗商品价格攀升20.1%；在2018年6～9月期间，受商品库存增加、中国环保停限产、中美贸易摩擦升级等因素的影响，大宗商品价格下跌了9.4%；2018年9月中旬至10月初，在能源商品价格强势上涨的带动下，大宗商品价格快速回升至2018年6月末的水平。带动大宗商品价格指数上涨的主要商品类别是能源、谷物和工业金属。2017年，中国进口的15种大宗商品的绝对价值额为3976亿美元，比上年增长40%，占全球进口份额为19.5%，上升2.0个百分点。预计大宗商品价格在2018年第四季度将处于底部盘整状态，在2019年可能有小幅下调，但基本稳定。国际原油均价在2019年可能会下调至65美元/桶左右。
During the interval from July 2017 to September 2018，the global commodity market experienced a wave of ups and downs. During this period，the price index dropped rapidly after a sharp rise，and the overall price rose by 9.0%. From July 2017 to the end of May 2018，commodity prices rose by 20.1%，mainly due to the global economic recovery，reduced oil production，increased geopolitical risks，U.S. sanctions on Iranian crude oil and Russian aluminum exports，China’s declined coal production capacity，and U.S.’s reduced grain cultivation. Between June and September 2018，commodity prices fell by 9.4%. This is mainly due to the increase in commodity inventories，China’s environmental protection and production restrictions，and the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions. Energy，grain and industrial metals are the main commodity categories that drive up the commodity price index. From mid-September to early October in 2018，commodity prices rapidly rebounded to the level of the end June 2018，driven by strong growth that gave impetus to prices of energy commodities. In 2017，the absolute value of 15 commodities imported by China was 397.6 billion US dollars，increased by 40% from the previous year. Its share of global imports reached 19.5%，rose by 2.0% from the previous year. It is expected that commodity prices will be at the bottom of the consolidation in the fourth quarter of 2018 and may decline slightly in 2019，but remain generally stable. The average price of crude oil may be around US $65 per barrel in 2019.
| Keywords： | Commodity MarketDemandSupplyPrice |
