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2018年国际金融形势回顾与展望

文章摘要

2017~2018年全球经济增长同步性减弱,货币政策正常化进程也有所分化。在美联储持续加息的同时,其他主要发达国家中央银行普遍保持利率政策不变。在国际金融市场上,美元升值显著,新兴市场国家货币普遍贬值,全球债务问题进一步恶化,美国发起的贸易摩擦升级所产生的不确定性造成了市场避险情绪上升,国际金融风险加大。与此同时,主要国家国债收益率走势呈现非同步性,全球股票市场走势也分化明显,外汇市场剧烈动荡,一些国家甚至出现货币危机征兆。展望未来,美联储处在加息通道,主要国家货币政策正常化将渐次推进,但预计息差仍将有利于美元升值。未来贸易摩擦走势、地缘政治变化等因素将对金融市场带来重大的不确定性,进而影响市场走势和资本流动。

Abstract

The synchronization of global economic growth in 2017-18 has weakened,and the process of normalization of monetary policy has also diverged. While the Fed continues to raise interest rates,the central banks of other major developed countries generally keep interest rate policies unchanged. On the international financial market,the appreciation of the US dollar is significant,the currencies of emerging economies have generally depreciated,and the global debt problem has further deteriorated. The uncertainty caused by the escalation of trade friction initiated by the United States has caused market risk aversion was raise and international financial risks rise to a higher level. At the same time,the yield of major government bonds showed a non-synchronous trend,and the trend of the global stock market has diverged significantly,the foreign exchange market has experienced great turbulence,some countries’ exchange rate depreciated sharply,and there were signs of currency crisis. Going forward,the Fed will still raise interest rates,and the normalization of monetary policy in major countries will gradually advance,but it is expected that the spreads will appreciate the US dollar. Future trade friction trends,geopolitical changes and other factors will bring significant uncertainty to the financial market,which in turn will affect market trends and capital flows.

作者简介
高海红:高海红,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员,博士生导师,主要研究领域为国际金融。
杨子荣:杨子荣,金融学博士,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所助理研究员,主要研究领域为国际金融。