在周期性因素和结构性因素的共同推动下，2017年世界货物贸易强劲反弹，实际增速达到4.7%，名义增速达到11%，均为近六年世界贸易增速的最高值。商品价格上升是世界贸易名义增速较快的重要原因。2018年上半年世界贸易实际增速是3.98%，主要由实际产出增长拉动。2018年下半年世界贸易形势可能会比上半年稍差。预计2018年全年贸易实际增速将介于3%～4%。2019年世界贸易增长相比2018年将进一步微弱下降。美国总统特朗普上台以后发起的贸易摩擦会对世界贸易造成较大负面影响，粗略估算表明，持续的贸易摩擦将会使世界贸易实际增速下降3.01个百分点。
Combined with cyclical and structural factors，world trade rebounded strongly in 2017，with real and nominal growth rates of 4.7% and 11%，the highest growth rates in the last six years. The rise in commodity prices was an important reason for the nominal growth rebound. The real growth rate of world trade in the first half of 2018 was 3.98%，which was mainly driven by actual output growth. The world trade situation in the second half of 2018 will be possibly slightly worse than the first half. The actual growth rate of world trade is expected to be between 3% and 4% for the year 2018. World trade growth will decline further in 2019 compared with 2018. The trade war，launched by US President Donald Trump，has had a big negative impact on world trade，with rough estimates suggesting that continued trade wars could reduce real growth rate of world trade by even 3.01%.
