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2018年中国股票市场回顾与2019年展望

文章摘要

在金融监管稳中有进的政策引领下,2018年中国资本市场有序开放,金融行业外资投资门槛大幅降低,A股正式纳入MSCI,中国股票市场在出清中寻找底部。供给侧结构性改革助推高质量发展任重道远,主要发达经济体货币政策正常化一如预期,中美贸易摩擦令市场承压,整体流动性合理稳定,货币市场与信用市场出现分化。2019年对A股市场不宜过分乐观,但也不必过分悲观,“市场底”将大概率得到确认,中国股票市场的春天就在不远的未来。

Abstract

Guided by policies of stability and progress in financial regulation,China’s capital market opens up in an orderly way in 2018 and the threshold for foreign investment in the financial sector has been greatly lowered. A-shares are included in MSCI. China’s stock market looks for the bottom in the clearing. It is a long way to go for the supply-side structural reform to promote the high-quality development. The normalization of monetary policies of major developed economies is the same as expected. The China-US trade conflicts bring pressure to the market. The aggregate liquidity remains reasonable and stable. Monetary market and credit market polarize. We should neither be too optimistic nor pessimistic about the A-shares market in 2019. It is highly possible that the “market bottom” will appear and the spring of Chin’s stock market will be in the near future.

作者简介
李世奇:李世奇,供职于上海社会科学院市值管理研究中心。
朱平芳:朱平芳,供职于上海社会科学院数量经济研究中心。